Common Stocks Uncommon Profits

Philip Fisher Growth Stock Investing Framework

This skill encodes the complete methodology from Philip Fisher's Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958, revised 1960). Fisher is one of history's greatest investors — Warren Buffett credits him as a major influence alongside Benjamin Graham.

Core Philosophy: Buy exceptional companies at reasonable prices and hold them almost forever. The goal is gains of several hundred percent over years, not small short-term profits. Most great gains come from a very small number of outstanding companies — finding them requires deep research, not superficial statistics.

HOW TO USE THIS SKILL

When the user asks about a company or stock:

1. Identify the question type (see routing below)
2. Load the relevant reference file for detailed criteria
3. Apply Fisher's framework systematically
4. Give a structured verdict with reasoning

Question routing:

• "Is X a growth stock?" or "Evaluate X" → Apply The 15 Points (see references/fifteen-points.md)
• "How do I research X?" → Apply Scuttlebutt Method (see references/scuttlebutt.md)
• "When should I buy X?" → Apply Buying Timing (see references/when-to-buy-sell.md)
• "Should I sell X?" → Apply Selling Rules (see references/when-to-buy-sell.md)
• "How many stocks should I own?" → Apply Diversification (see references/donts.md)
• General pitfalls / mistakes → Apply Don'ts (see references/donts.md)

QUICK FRAMEWORK SUMMARY

What Makes a True Growth Stock (The Core Test)

A true Fisher growth stock must score well on most of the 15 Points. There are two essential categories — no exceptions:

Category A — Business Quality (Must be present):

• Large, expandable market for its products (not a one-time surge)
• Determined R&D pipeline for future growth after current products mature
• Above-average profit margins, OR deliberately thin margins to fuel faster growth
• Outstanding sales organization (production + research are useless without sales)
• Active program to maintain/improve profit margins (not just price increases)

Category B — Management Quality (Must be present):

• Unquestionable integrity — this is the one non-negotiable point. If integrity is in doubt, never invest regardless of other scores.
• Long-range outlook on profits (not maximizing current quarter)
• Openly communicates with investors in bad times as well as good
• Depth of management — not dependent on one key person
• Good labor AND executive relations

Category C — Financial Health (Important but more flexible):

• Equity financing plans, if needed, won't severely dilute existing shareholders
• Effective cost analysis and accounting controls
• Industry-specific factors considered

Two Types of Great Growth Companies

Fisher identified two archetypes — both can be outstanding investments:

• "Fortunate and Able": Companies in great industries that grew even bigger than founders imagined (e.g., Alcoa in aluminum)
• "Fortunate Because They Are Able": Companies that created their own luck through brilliant management (e.g., Du Pont — started making blasting powder, built an empire through skill and research)

The key insight: Management quality is the common denominator. No company grows for decades on luck alone.

SCORING & VERDICT FRAMEWORK

When evaluating a company, score each of the 15 Points as:

• ✅ Strong — clearly qualifies
• ⚠️ Adequate — passes but with reservations
• ❌ Weak — fails to qualify
• ❓ Unknown — requires scuttlebutt research to determine

Verdict guide:

• 13–15 ✅ → Outstanding growth stock candidate — investigate deeply
• 10–12 ✅ with no ❌ on integrity/management → Solid candidate — worth further research
• Any ❌ on integrity → Reject immediately — no exceptions
• Multiple ❌ on management points → Not a Fisher growth stock
• Strong on business but weak on management → Dangerous — avoid

KEY PRINCIPLES TO APPLY IN EVERY ANALYSIS

1. Qualitative over quantitative: The most important factors (management integrity, R&D effectiveness, sales culture) cannot be captured by ratios. Numbers are a starting point, not a conclusion.

2. Future matters, not past: Past EPS and historical price ranges are nearly meaningless. What matters is what earnings will be in 3–5 years and whether the business will still be exceptional then.

3. P/E ratio nuance: A consistently exceptional company should trade at a premium P/E. A stock trading at 2× the market P/E that has done so for 30 years is NOT overpriced if it continues to deliver. Do not reject a great company just because it looks "expensive" on simple metrics.

4. Market timing is futile: Do not wait for economic forecasts to "clear up" before buying. Nobody can reliably predict business cycles. A better approach: buy great companies during temporary troubles they will overcome.

5. Scuttlebutt before management: Never approach management first. Build your picture from customers, competitors, suppliers, and ex-employees first. Only visit management when you already have ~50% of what you need to know.

WHEN TO READ THE REFERENCE FILES

• For a full company evaluation: read references/fifteen-points.md — contains all 15 criteria with detailed application guidance
• For how to research a company: read references/scuttlebutt.md — Fisher's intelligence-gathering methodology
• For buy/sell timing: read references/when-to-buy-sell.md — specific entry and exit rules
• For portfolio construction or investor mistakes: read references/donts.md — 10 common errors and diversification rules

EXAMPLE ANALYSIS STRUCTURE

When asked "Is [Company X] a growth stock?", structure your response as:

Fisher Growth Stock Analysis: [Company X]

1. Business Overview (what it does, industry dynamics)
2. 15-Point Assessment (score each point based on available information)
3. Key Strengths (what clearly qualifies)
4. Key Concerns (what is weak or unknown)
5. Scuttlebutt Gaps (what needs further research to determine)
6. Verdict (Outstanding / Solid Candidate / Not a Fisher Stock / Insufficient Data)
7. If buying: Timing considerations from references/when-to-buy-sell.md

Always note what information is unknown and requires scuttlebutt research. Fisher himself says he cannot make a confident judgment without that research — neither should we.