winstonkoh87 Red-Team Review (v4.3 — Strategic Matrix)
Canonical Protocol: MTA-004-red-team-v4-3.md Absorbs:
bias-detector(v4.0 Phase 2 anchoring/base-rate suite retained below) Upgraded: 2026-09-04 — unified skill v4.0 + protocol v4.3 into single version Version History: v4.0 (5-phase) → v4.1 → v4.2 → v4.3 (Strategic Matrix, 7-phase)
This skill wraps MTA-004 (the canonical red-team protocol) and adds trigger routing + the bias detection suite from v4.0. For the full framework, load MTA-004 directly.
Triggers
"review this", "red team", "what am I missing", "is this ready to ship", "QA", "critique", "is this a fair price", "too good to be true", "scam", "is this legit", "grill me"
The 7-Phase Framework (MTA-004 v4.3)
Phase 0: Priors & Premises (Mandatory)
Assume the "Alien Observer" stance. Declare:
- Thesis: core argument/frame of the artifact
- Falsification: what specific metric/event proves this wrong
- Excluded Reality: what valid perspective is strictly ignored
- Reality Check: the unspoken cultural narrative or meta-game
Do not proceed until these 4 are answered.
Phase 1: The Objective Rubric
Score the artifact against this matrix. Start at 50%.
| Component | Weight | Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| Logic & Rigor | 30% | Deductively sound. Checks survivorship bias & sample size. No orphan stats. |
| Bias Mitigation | 20% | Steelmans opposition. Checks for sycophancy. |
| Completeness | 20% | Addresses "The Victim." Covers edge cases and cultural nuance. |
| Strategic Alignment | 15% | Aligns with Law #1. Respects physics. High utility. |
| Actionability | 15% | Recommendations are distinct, executable, and ranked. |
Confidence Cap: Low confidence → max score capped at 60/100.
Phase 1.5: The "Grill Me" Test (Echo Chamber Breaker)
If invoked via /grill or explicitly asked to "grill me":
- Reverse Roles: Act as the senior, uncompromising reviewer.
- Challenge Premises: Explicitly challenge at least one core premise.
- Demand Proof: Make the user defend their decisions.
Phase 2: Adversarial Lenses (The Attack)
One concrete objection per lens:
| Lens | The Attack Question |
|---|---|
| The Skeptic | Survivorship bias or small sample size (n=1)? Show me the graveyard. |
| The Victim | This strategy harms me because [negative externalities]. |
| The Historian | Mean reversion? Does this work in a bear market? |
| The Anthropologist | What is the implied social contract or cultural narrative? |
| The Cynic | You are lying to yourself about [hidden incentive/ego]. |
| The System | This ignores the 2nd order effect on [broader ecosystem]. |
| The Entropy | This will rot via [vector] because [reason]. |
Entropy Vectors: Incentive Rot, Complexity Rot, Competition Rot, Regulatory Rot, Tech Obsolescence, Data Rot.
Phase 2B: Bias Detection Suite (from v4.0)
Anchoring Detection
- Source Check: Where did this number come from?
- Red Flags: Round numbers, comparison anchoring, pre-concession framing.
- Structural Test: Cost of production? Value to buyer? Alternative cost?
- Correction:
Structural Value = max(Cost * 1.5, Value to Buyer * 0.3)
Base Rate Audit
IF (Claimed Outcome) >> (Expected Outcome for Demographics)
THEN (Hidden Variable) EXISTS
Hidden Variable Spectrum (descending probability):
- Hidden Capital — family money, inheritance
- Hidden Cost — extreme leverage, illegal activity
- Hidden Variance — survivorship bias
- Fabrication — the claim is a lie
- Genuine Outlier — the <0.1%
Standard Bias Checklist
Sycophancy, Cherry-Picking, False Precision, Assumed Context, Complexity Bias.
Phase 3: Strategic Expansion (SWOT + TOWS)
Use Phase 2 objections to populate Weaknesses/Threats. Build the TOWS matrix:
- SO (Attack): Use Strength to capture Opportunity
- WO (Improve): Fix Weakness to capture Opportunity
- ST (Defend): Use Strength to block Threat
- WT (Mitigate): Survival/exit strategy
Phase 4: Decision Engine (MCDA)
Rank top 3 recommendations using:
Final Score = ((Impact + Ease) / Risk Factor) * Entropy Multiplier
- Risk Factors: Low = 1.0 | Med = 1.5 | High = 2.0
- Entropy Multipliers: Stable = 1.0 | Decaying = 0.8 | Rotting = 0.5
Invoke Protocol 121 (MCDA/EEV/Pairwise) for complex multi-criteria rankings.
Phase 5: Blind Spot & Kill Switch
- "I am least confident about ______ because ______." (Check for survivorship bias.)
- The Kill Switch: We must ABANDON this strategy immediately if [specific condition].
Executive Summary
- Final Score: XX/100 (Confidence: X)
- The Kill Shot: The single most dangerous flaw found.
- The #1 Recommendation: The highest scoring Phase 4 option.
Rules
- Quote directly. No vague complaints.
- Steelman opposing views BEFORE critiquing them.
- Empty sections are allowed — don't invent issues.
- Every HIGH must have a fix achievable in ≤10 minutes.
Reference Protocols
- MTA-004: Red-Team Review v4.3 — canonical protocol (this skill wraps it)
- DEC-121: MCDA / EEV / Pairwise — Phase 4 ranking engine
- DEC-500: GTO Problem Solver — capstone decision protocol