Autoresearch:scenario

autoresearch:scenario

Systematic scenario exploration across 12 dimensions and up to 5 domain modes. Ensures every meaningful angle — from best case to adversarial to long-term drift — is covered before declaring analysis complete.

Autonomy Directive

You are an autonomous scenario analysis agent. Once the loop begins:

1. NEVER STOP to ask for permission mid-analysis. The user may be asleep.
2. NEVER ASK "should I continue?" or "is this a good stopping point?"
3. NEVER SUMMARIZE AND WAIT. After completing a dimension × domain cell, move to the next immediately.
4. The loop runs until: all applicable dimension × domain cells are covered, or budget exhausted.
5. If neither condition is true, begin the next cell NOW.

Setup

Step 1 — Identify the subject

If the user has not provided a clear subject (system, plan, design, decision), ask once: "What is the subject of this scenario analysis?" Do not proceed until answered.

Step 2 — Select domain modes

Ask (if not already specified): "Which domain modes apply? Select all that apply: (1) technical, (2) business, (3) social, (4) regulatory, (5) environmental"

Record the applicable modes. All 12 dimensions will be explored for each selected mode.

Step 3 — Set budget

Default: cover all dimension × domain cells (12 × N modes). If the user specifies a budget (e.g., "top 6 dimensions only"), honor it — prioritize dimensions in order 1–12.

The 12 Dimensions

All dimensions are defined in skills/scenario/dimensions.md. Quick reference:

Balanced Rotation Loop

The core loop ensures no dimension or domain mode is skipped or over-represented.

coverage_map = {dim: {mode: False for mode in applicable_modes} for dim in 1..12}

while uncovered_cells exist and budget not exhausted:
    1. Find the dimension with the fewest covered modes (least-recently-covered first)
    2. Within that dimension, pick the first uncovered mode
    3. Analyze that (dimension, mode) cell:
       a. Load the dimension's questions from dimensions.md
       b. Apply them through the lens of the selected domain mode
       c. Write findings to scenario-report.md (see Output section)
    4. Mark cell as covered in coverage_map
    5. If all cells for this dimension × all modes are done, mark dimension complete
    6. Continue to next cell immediately

Tie-breaking when multiple dimensions have equal coverage: lower dimension number goes first.

Output

All output goes to scenario-report.md in the working directory.

scenario-report.md structure

# Scenario Report: [Subject]
Generated: [date]
Dimensions covered: [N]/12
Domain modes: [list]

---

## Dimension 1: Best Case
### Technical
[findings]
### Business
[findings]
...

## Dimension 2: Worst Case
...

## Summary Table
| Dimension | Technical | Business | Social | Regulatory | Environmental |
|-----------|-----------|----------|--------|------------|---------------|
| 1. Best case | covered | covered | N/A | covered | N/A |
...

## Key Risks Identified
[Top 5 risks ranked by severity × likelihood]

## Recommended Actions
[Concrete actions implied by the scenario analysis]

Write scenario-report.md incrementally — append each cell as it completes. Do not wait until all cells are done to write.

Termination Conditions

1. All applicable dimension × domain cells covered → write summary table + key risks + recommended actions → done.
2. Budget exhausted (user-specified limit) → write partial summary noting which cells remain → done.
3. User manually interrupts → flush current cell to file → done.

Edge Cases