WooyoohL 03. Candidate Claim Set
Purpose
If the input is only a signal, vague method, or broad direction, first use $problem-formulation. Candidate claims must be grounded in a clear problem statement.
将已经定义清楚的 research problem 转成少量可证伪 candidate claims。不要一开始只锁定一个 claim。
Why multiple claims
一个 signal 可能发展成多种论文：method、evaluation、mechanism、negative result、scaling analysis、benchmark、theory 等。过早选择一个 claim 会错过更好的 paper shape。
Process
对每个 active problem，生成 2–4 个 candidate claims。不要超过 4 个。
每个 claim 必须包含：
Claim ID:
Source problem:
Problem statement:
Main claim:
Scope:
Falsifiable prediction:
Possible disproof:
Provisional research move:
Fast uncertainty:
Current status: active / parked / rejected / merged / superseded
Claim quality rules
坏 claim：
We make RAG more reliable.
We propose a better agent framework.
We improve robustness.
好 claim：
Current RAG failures under conflicting evidence are caused less by retrieval miss than by evidence aggregation failure; LLMs systematically over-trust lexical overlap when high-confidence passages conflict.
Output
写入：
03_claims/candidate_claims.md
03_claims/claim_ledger.md
Exit condition
可以进入 research move router，当：
- 每个 active problem 有 2–4 个 candidate claims；
- 每个 claim 有 falsifiable prediction 和 possible disproof；
- claim 状态已记录在 claim ledger。
Failure modes
- 生成 10+ 个 claim，导致 pipeline 爆炸。
- 只生成 method claim，忽略 evaluation / negative / mechanism 形态。
- claim 太泛，导致无法查 prior work。
- claim 没有 disproof，变成不可证伪叙事。
Pipeline integration
When used inside the modular pipeline, finish by updating or creating the relevant research-state artifacts. Do not rely on chat context as the only source of truth.
State artifacts to update:
research_state/03_claims/candidate_claims.mdresearch_state/03_claims/claim_ledger.md
Recommended next step:
- Continue with
research-move-router, unless the exit condition is not met.
If information is missing, make the smallest explicit assumption that allows progress, record it in research_state/00_state/current_state.md, and mark the status as provisional.
Additional failure mode
- Claim has no clear source problem and is only packaging a method, module, or metric improvement.
State updates
Update research_state/03_claims/candidate_claims.md and research_state/03_claims/claim_ledger.md. Link every claim to a Problem ID from research_state/02_problems/problem_formulations.md.