Earnings Preview
Role
You prepare the investor to enter an earnings event with a structured position: what
consensus expects, what the thesis requires, what scenarios are plausible, and what
specific metrics will determine whether conviction rises or falls after the print.
This is a decision framework built before the result, not a prediction, and not a
research report. Its job is to eliminate noise so the investor can assess the actual
print quickly when it drops.
The output from this skill feeds directly into earnings-analysis. When running the
post-print review, reference this preview document.
Step 0: Calibrate Depth
| Mode |
Trigger |
Output |
| Quick |
"just the key numbers", "brief", "what's consensus" |
Consensus table + 3 key metrics |
| Full (default) |
No modifier, or any mention of thesis / positioning |
All steps |
Step 1: Confirm Inputs
- Company and ticker (include exchange suffix for ASX: e.g. WDS.AX)
- Reporting period: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 or H1/H2/FY and fiscal year
- Earnings date and time: confirm via web search. For AU: note pre-market (ASX open) or post-close (after 4pm AEST)
- Existing thesis: check Theses folder for
[TICKER]-thesis.md. Load if found.
- Position: held (long), watchlist, or none
Then proceed. Do not ask for anything else.
Step 2: Consensus Snapshot
Pull via web search. For US: Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, company IR. For ASX: CommSec,
ASX announcements, company IR. Note analyst count: thin coverage (1-3 analysts) means
higher surprise potential and a wider confidence interval.
Company: [Name] ([TICKER])
Reporting period: [Q/H/FY] [Year]
Earnings date: [Day DD Mon YYYY, Time]
Analysts covering: [X]
| Metric |
Consensus |
Prior Period Actual |
YoY Change |
Estimate Range (High / Low) |
| Revenue |
|
|
|
|
| EBITDA / Operating Profit |
|
|
|
|
| NPAT / EPS |
|
|
|
|
| Gross Margin |
|
|
|
|
| [Key sector metric 1] |
|
|
|
|
| [Key sector metric 2] |
|
|
|
|
| Forward guidance |
N/A (wait for result) |
: |
: |
: |
A wide estimate range signals high uncertainty: flag this as it implies a larger potential price move.
Step 3: Key Metrics Framework
Identify the 3-5 metrics that will actually move this stock on results day: often not the
headline figures. State why each matters right now.
For each metric:
- Metric: [Name and expected value or direction]
- Why it matters this print: [1 sentence]
- Threshold: [What level / direction is positive vs. concerning]
Common sector-specific metrics:
- Technology / SaaS: ARR growth, net revenue retention, RPO, operating leverage
- Resources / Mining (ASX): Realised prices vs. spot, production volumes vs. guidance, AISC, capex vs. budget
- Banks / Financials: NIM direction, credit quality, loan growth, cost-to-income
- Healthcare: Script volumes, pipeline updates, reimbursement decisions
- Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume mix
- Retail: Same-store sales, gross margin, inventory levels
Step 4: Scenario Framework
| Scenario |
Probability |
Revenue vs. Consensus |
EPS vs. Consensus |
Key Driver |
Expected Stock Reaction |
| Bull |
[%] |
[+X%] |
[+X%] |
[What drives it] |
[+X% to +X%] |
| Base |
[%] |
[~flat] |
[~flat] |
[In-line, guidance intact] |
[Range] |
| Bear |
[%] |
[-X%] |
[-X%] |
[What drives it] |
[-X% to -X%] |
Probabilities must sum to 100%. For each scenario, name the confirmation signal:
the single piece of evidence in the result or commentary that immediately tells you
which scenario has played out.
Step 5: Historical Reaction Context
How has this stock moved on the last 3-4 prints?
| Period |
Beat / Miss / In-line |
Revenue |
EPS |
Guidance |
Stock Day-1 Move |
| [Q/H/FY Year] |
|
|
|
|
|
Note any pattern: does this stock reward beats, or is it guidance-dependent?
Source via web search.
Step 6: Thesis Pillar Checklist (only if thesis file exists)
| Pillar |
What the Print Will Show |
Confirmation Signal |
Concern Signal |
| [Pillar name] |
[Specific metric or disclosure] |
[What confirms it's intact] |
[What challenges it] |
Work through this table live when the result drops: note ✅/⚠️/❌ next to each pillar.
Then hand these notes to earnings-analysis for the post-print verdict.
If no thesis file exists, flag this and suggest running thesis-tracker after the result.
Step 7: Output
Quick mode: Consensus table + three key metrics. Inline only, no file.
Full mode:
- Deliver inline: lead with earnings date and key metrics (most time-sensitive), then scenarios, then pillar checklist.
- Save to the user's workspace folder:
Stock Strategy/Stock Investment Analysis/Earnings-Previews/[TICKER]-[Period]-preview.md (or equivalent)
- Confirm file saved and path.
- Note: when the result drops, run earnings-analysis and reference this preview file.
Important Notes
- For ASX companies: results land on the ASX platform at market open (10am AEST) or after close (4pm AEST). The ASX announcements page is the primary source.
- For small/mid-cap ASX stocks with 1-3 analysts, a "beat" or "miss" vs. thin consensus is less meaningful than for large-caps. Note this explicitly.
- Guidance language matters for AU companies: watch for phrasing shifts: "in line", "towards the top of the range", "subject to market conditions".
- This skill pairs with: thesis-tracker (pillar source), catalyst-calendar (scheduled trigger), earnings-analysis (post-print handoff), and stock-institutional (for institutional investors: reassess the active weight recommendation after a material earnings event confirms or challenges the fundamental verdict).
Chaining note: stock-institutional is planned for a future release of this repository.
The earnings workflow in this repo is complete without it.
1---2name: earnings-preview3description: Pre-earnings setup for any listed company ahead of a quarterly, half-year, or full-year result. Builds a structured decision framework: consensus estimates, bull/base/bear scenarios, key metrics to watch, thesis pillar checklist, and historical stock reaction context. Pairs with earnings-analysis (post-print verdict) and thesis-tracker (pillar updates). Covers US (NYSE/NASDAQ) and AU (ASX) markets. Triggers on: "earnings preview", "what should I watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", "preview Q[X] for [company]", "prepare me for [company] results", "what's consensus for [company]", "[company] reports [date], what do I need to know", "earnings preview for [ticker]", or any request to prepare ahead of an upcoming earnings release.4---56# Earnings Preview78## Role910You prepare the investor to enter an earnings event with a structured position: what11consensus expects, what the thesis requires, what scenarios are plausible, and what12specific metrics will determine whether conviction rises or falls after the print.1314This is a decision framework built before the result, not a prediction, and not a15research report. Its job is to eliminate noise so the investor can assess the actual16print quickly when it drops.1718The output from this skill feeds directly into earnings-analysis. When running the19post-print review, reference this preview document.2021---2223## Step 0: Calibrate Depth2425| Mode | Trigger | Output |26|------|---------|--------|27| **Quick** | "just the key numbers", "brief", "what's consensus" | Consensus table + 3 key metrics |28| **Full** *(default)* | No modifier, or any mention of thesis / positioning | All steps |2930---3132## Step 1: Confirm Inputs33341. Company and ticker (include exchange suffix for ASX: e.g. WDS.AX)352. Reporting period: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 or H1/H2/FY and fiscal year363. Earnings date and time: confirm via web search. For AU: note pre-market (ASX open) or post-close (after 4pm AEST)374. Existing thesis: check Theses folder for `[TICKER]-thesis.md`. Load if found.385. Position: held (long), watchlist, or none3940Then proceed. Do not ask for anything else.4142---4344## Step 2: Consensus Snapshot4546Pull via web search. For US: Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, company IR. For ASX: CommSec,47ASX announcements, company IR. Note analyst count: thin coverage (1-3 analysts) means48higher surprise potential and a wider confidence interval.4950**Company:** [Name] ([TICKER])51**Reporting period:** [Q/H/FY] [Year]52**Earnings date:** [Day DD Mon YYYY, Time]53**Analysts covering:** [X]5455| Metric | Consensus | Prior Period Actual | YoY Change | Estimate Range (High / Low) |56|--------|-----------|--------------------|-----------|-----------------------------|57| Revenue | | | | |58| EBITDA / Operating Profit | | | | |59| NPAT / EPS | | | | |60| Gross Margin | | | | |61| [Key sector metric 1] | | | | |62| [Key sector metric 2] | | | | |63| Forward guidance | N/A (wait for result) |: |: |: |6465A wide estimate range signals high uncertainty: flag this as it implies a larger potential price move.6667---6869## Step 3: Key Metrics Framework7071Identify the 3-5 metrics that will actually move this stock on results day: often not the72headline figures. State why each matters right now.7374For each metric:75- **Metric:** [Name and expected value or direction]76- **Why it matters this print:** [1 sentence]77- **Threshold:** [What level / direction is positive vs. concerning]7879Common sector-specific metrics:80- **Technology / SaaS:** ARR growth, net revenue retention, RPO, operating leverage81- **Resources / Mining (ASX):** Realised prices vs. spot, production volumes vs. guidance, AISC, capex vs. budget82- **Banks / Financials:** NIM direction, credit quality, loan growth, cost-to-income83- **Healthcare:** Script volumes, pipeline updates, reimbursement decisions84- **Industrials:** Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume mix85- **Retail:** Same-store sales, gross margin, inventory levels8687---8889## Step 4: Scenario Framework9091| Scenario | Probability | Revenue vs. Consensus | EPS vs. Consensus | Key Driver | Expected Stock Reaction |92|----------|------------|----------------------|-------------------|-----------|------------------------|93| Bull | [%] | [+X%] | [+X%] | [What drives it] | [+X% to +X%] |94| Base | [%] | [~flat] | [~flat] | [In-line, guidance intact] | [Range] |95| Bear | [%] | [-X%] | [-X%] | [What drives it] | [-X% to -X%] |9697Probabilities must sum to 100%. For each scenario, name the **confirmation signal**:98the single piece of evidence in the result or commentary that immediately tells you99which scenario has played out.100101---102103## Step 5: Historical Reaction Context104105How has this stock moved on the last 3-4 prints?106107| Period | Beat / Miss / In-line | Revenue | EPS | Guidance | Stock Day-1 Move |108|--------|-----------------------|---------|-----|----------|------------------|109| [Q/H/FY Year] | | | | | |110111Note any pattern: does this stock reward beats, or is it guidance-dependent?112Source via web search.113114---115116## Step 6: Thesis Pillar Checklist (only if thesis file exists)117118| Pillar | What the Print Will Show | Confirmation Signal | Concern Signal |119|--------|------------------------|--------------------|----|120| [Pillar name] | [Specific metric or disclosure] | [What confirms it's intact] | [What challenges it] |121122Work through this table live when the result drops: note ✅/⚠️/❌ next to each pillar.123Then hand these notes to earnings-analysis for the post-print verdict.124125If no thesis file exists, flag this and suggest running thesis-tracker after the result.126127---128129## Step 7: Output130131**Quick mode:** Consensus table + three key metrics. Inline only, no file.132133**Full mode:**1341. Deliver inline: lead with earnings date and key metrics (most time-sensitive), then scenarios, then pillar checklist.1352. Save to the user's workspace folder: `Stock Strategy/Stock Investment Analysis/Earnings-Previews/[TICKER]-[Period]-preview.md` (or equivalent)1363. Confirm file saved and path.1374. Note: when the result drops, run earnings-analysis and reference this preview file.138139---140141## Important Notes142143- For ASX companies: results land on the ASX platform at market open (10am AEST) or after close (4pm AEST). The ASX announcements page is the primary source.144- For small/mid-cap ASX stocks with 1-3 analysts, a "beat" or "miss" vs. thin consensus is less meaningful than for large-caps. Note this explicitly.145- Guidance language matters for AU companies: watch for phrasing shifts: "in line", "towards the top of the range", "subject to market conditions".146- This skill pairs with: thesis-tracker (pillar source), catalyst-calendar (scheduled trigger), earnings-analysis (post-print handoff), and stock-institutional (for institutional investors: reassess the active weight recommendation after a material earnings event confirms or challenges the fundamental verdict).147148---149150> **Chaining note:** `stock-institutional` is planned for a future release of this repository.151> The earnings workflow in this repo is complete without it.
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