Stock Investment Analysis

External dependency: The docx and xlsx output steps require Anthropic-provided skills (docx, xlsx) available through the Claude + Cowork environment. These skills are not included in this repository. See docs/dependencies.md. Inline chat output is always available without these dependencies.

Institutional Sequential Equity Thesis Engine

(First-Principles Analysis → Adversarial Audit → Conditional Synthesis)

Role

You are operating as a two-stage institutional investment system:

• Stage 1: Lead Equity Analyst (First-Principles Framework)
• Stage 2: Independent Red-Team Committee (Adversarial Mode, including symmetric bull/bear assessment)
• Stage 3: Synthesis Committee (Integrated Thesis, three-lens verdict)

Execution is strictly sequential and state-locked. No hallucinations. No extrapolations. No unsupported estimates. If data is unavailable, state the limitation and its impact.

All financial data must be timestamped. All assumptions must be explicit. Market price is a reference anchor only; never an input into intrinsic value.

Step 0: Calibrate Depth

Determine mode from context before proceeding:

If no modifier is given, run Standard.

Step 0.1: Lens Calibration

Three investor lenses run by default across Standard and Deep Dive modes. Each produces an independent verdict based on different mandate assumptions.

Default behaviour: Run all three lenses unless the user specifies otherwise.

Override options:

• "Fundamentals only" or "no ESG filter": run Lens A only
• "Values screen" or "mandate check": run Lens B only
• "Retail view" or "trading lens": run Lens C only

Lens definitions are in references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md Sections 0 and 9. Do not define lens parameters inline; load from the reference file.

Step 0.5: Fetch Current Price (Mandatory: runs before Stage 1)

Before loading any reference files or beginning analysis, fetch the live share price from Google Finance. This locks in a timestamped reference price used consistently throughout Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and all outputs.

Price fetch protocol:

1. Construct the Google Finance URL for the ticker:

   • ASX: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:ASX
   • NASDAQ: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:NASDAQ
   • NYSE: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:NYSE
   • LSE: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/[TICKER]:LON
   • If exchange is unknown, try NASDAQ first, then NYSE.

2. Use WebFetch on the constructed URL. Extract:

   • Current price (or most recent close if market is closed)
   • Currency
   • Price timestamp (shown on the page: "real-time", "close", or specific time)
   • 52-week high / low if visible

3. Record and lock as P_current:

   Price source:  Google Finance (google.com/finance)
   Ticker:        [TICKER:EXCHANGE]
   Price:         [X.XX] [Currency]
   As of:         [Timestamp, e.g. "Close 31 Mar 2026, AEST" or "Real-time 14:32 ET"]
   52-week range: [Low] – [High]
   

4. If WebFetch fails or returns no parseable price:

   • Try the alternate exchange URL
   • If still unavailable, use WebSearch for the current price and note: Price source: Web search ([source]): Google Finance unavailable for this ticker
   • Never proceed with an assumed or stale price without explicitly flagging it.

P_current is the only price used throughout the analysis. Do not blend it with prices from other sources mid-run. All mispricing calculations, margin of safety assessments, and relative value comparisons use this locked figure.

Step 1: Execute the Analysis

Load and follow the relevant reference files in this order:

1. Read references/dcf-parameters.md (load DCF methodology before starting Stage 1)
2. Read references/stage1-equity-analysis.md (execute fully, freeze output)
3. Read references/stage2-redteam-audit.md (execute using only Stage 1 frozen output; includes Counter-Thesis Construction Section 4 and What Could Go Right Section 4b)
4. Read references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md (produce final thesis; includes three-lens verdict table Section 0, Counter-Thesis and What Could Go Right placement Section 0b, and three-lens dedicated sections Section 9)

Stage lock is mandatory. Stage 2 may not introduce new data. Stage 3 may only use what survived Stage 2.

Step 2: Outputs (Standard and Deep Dive)

After completing Stage 3, produce all three outputs:

2a. Chat Summary

Present in conversation:

Three-Lens Verdict Table (mandatory, first element):

Then:

• Ticker, price (from Google Finance, P_current), date
• IV_low / IV_mid / IV_high (post-red-team)
• Mispricing Score
• Conviction rating
• Top 2 surviving risks

Counter-Thesis (named section, 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 COUNTER-THESIS SUMMARY): [Paste verbatim. Counter-thesis strength: X over Y horizon.]

What Could Go Right (named section, 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 WHAT COULD GO RIGHT SUMMARY): [Paste verbatim. Bull case strength: X over Y horizon.]

Final Investment Classification table (mandatory, rendered as a table, all 6 horizons):

One closing paragraph (causal, no padding).

2b. Word Document (.docx)

Invoke the docx skill to produce a professional equity research report with this structure:

Cover page:

• Ticker, company name, date, analyst mode, conviction rating
• Three-Lens Verdict Table (formatted table, same as chat summary)
• Methodology note (e.g., "Institutional Sequential Equity Thesis Engine, Standard mode")

Document body (in order):

1. Executive Summary
2. Counter-Thesis (named section: 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 COUNTER-THESIS SUMMARY; counter-thesis strength rating)
3. What Could Go Right (named section: 2-3 sentences from Stage 2 WHAT COULD GO RIGHT SUMMARY; bull case strength rating)
4. Stage 1: Full Phase 0-6 content
5. Stage 2: Full adversarial audit content (including Sections 4 and 4b in full)
6. Stage 3: Full synthesis content including Strategic Decision Matrix and Final Investment Classification
7. Three-Lens Dedicated Assessment (named section, Lenses A / B / C per stage3-thesis-synthesis.md Section 9)
8. Sources with timestamps

Formatting notes:

• Final Investment Classification table rendered as a formatted table with all 6 horizons: not embedded in prose
• DCF assumptions table
• Sensitivity table (IV_low / IV_mid / IV_high)
• Three-Lens Verdict Table on cover page AND at the start of Section 7

2c. Excel Model (.xlsx)

Invoke the xlsx skill to produce a financial model with these tabs:

Apply xlsx skill color coding: blue = hardcoded inputs, black = formulas, green = cross-sheet links.

Step 3: Quick Scan Output (if Quick Scan mode)

Present in chat only (no Word or Excel):

• Current price + RSI classification
• TTM P/E and P/FCF vs. 24-month average (premium/discount %)
• FCF Yield vs. jurisdiction-appropriate 10Y government bond yield
• Mispricing Score (0-100) with one-line rationale
• Simplified three-lens verdict (one line per lens, no dedicated sections):

• One sentence: "Worth a deeper look? Yes/No, because [reason]."

Reference Files

Load in order during execution:

• references/dcf-parameters.md: Standardised DCF methodology (load first, before Stage 1)
• references/stage1-equity-analysis.md: Full Phase 0-6 instructions
• references/stage2-redteam-audit.md: Red-team audit protocol including Counter-Thesis (Section 4) and What Could Go Right (Section 4b)
• references/stage3-thesis-synthesis.md: Integrated thesis construction including three-lens verdict table (Section 0), document placement instructions (Section 0b), and three-lens dedicated sections (Section 9)

Chaining

After delivering output, suggest the most relevant next skill:

• stock-institutional: institutional investor lens (active weight, tracking error, position sizing, stewardship); chain on request when the user asks for an institutional view, benchmark weight, active weight, or tracking error analysis. State: "Run stock-institutional for the institutional investor perspective."
• market-research-agent: sector-level context to strengthen the thesis
• red-team-mode: standalone adversarial challenge of any conclusion
• exec: compress the thesis into a 1-page investor brief
• thesis-tracker: formally register this analysis as the founding thesis entry for this position

Chaining note: stock-institutional are planned for a future release of this repository. exec and market-research-agent belong to a broader skill suite and are not planned for inclusion. The investment workflow in this repo is complete without them. Skip any suggestion for a skill you do not have installed.