yknothing Estimation
Estimate to expose uncertainty and trade-offs, not to pretend the future is certain.
Context
Estimation converts a task list into a planning signal the team can actually use.
See context and anti-pattern notes.
Inputs
I/O contract notes define required inputs and authority.
Process
Step 1: Normalize the Unit of Estimation
Pick one estimation approach for the planning horizon: hours, ideal days, story points, or size buckets. Keep it consistent within the same plan.
Step 2: Estimate Task by Task
For each task, record:
- base size
- confidence level
- key assumptions
- blockers or external dependencies that could widen the range
If the estimate depends on an unresolved question, say so explicitly instead of guessing low.
Step 3: Calibrate Against Risk and History
Adjust estimates when risk, novelty, or coordination cost makes the base number misleading. Compare against similar recent work when available.
Step 4: Publish the Estimate Set
Package the estimates in a form sprint or milestone planning can consume directly. Distinguish between:
- confident work
- work with wide uncertainty
- work that should not be scheduled until a risk or dependency is resolved
Outputs
Produce only declared outputs at their documented quality boundary.
Quality Gate
- Every planned task has an estimate
- Confidence or uncertainty is explicit
- Key assumptions and blockers are recorded
- Risk materially changes estimates where appropriate
- The output is usable by downstream sprint or milestone planning