Alternative Analysis Strategy
CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.
Method
- alternative-futures builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base
- What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity
- Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency
- probe-execution tests each alternative against available evidence
- Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives
- finding-aggregation compares explanatory power across alternatives
Budget Table
| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack vectors | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| Probing rounds | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| Personas | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Assumption checks | 5 | 10 | 20 |
Orchestration
threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]
→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)
→ [for each alternative]:
attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)
→ probe-execution (test alternative)
→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring
Subagents
- threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)
- alternative-futures (scenario generation)
- attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)
- probe-execution (alternative testing)
- finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| adversarial-roleplay | Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation. |
| structured-attack-campaign | Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| alternative-futures | Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions. |
| attack-vector-generation | Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed. |
| finding-aggregation | Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report. |
| probe-execution | Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification. |
| threat-surface-mapping | Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions. |