yogsoth-ai Closest Worlds Strategy
Lewis semantics: evaluate counterfactuals by finding the nearest possible world where the antecedent holds and checking whether the consequent follows.
Method
- causal-claim-extraction identifies the conclusion and its supporting factors
- factor-enumeration maps the space of possible changes
- flip-point-detection searches for minimal changes that flip the conclusion
- counterfactual-scenario-construction builds the nearest world where conclusion fails
- fragility-measurement computes distance from actuality to flip-point
- load-bearing-identification ranks factors by proximity to flip
Budget Table
| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change candidates explored | 5 | 12 | 25 |
| Flip-point searches | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| World-distance comparisons | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Orchestration
causal-claim-extraction → factor-enumeration
→ [generate change candidates]:
flip-point-detection (binary search for minimal flip)
→ counterfactual-scenario-construction (build nearest world)
→ fragility-measurement (compute distance)
→ load-bearing-identification (rank by proximity)
Subagents
- causal-claim-extraction (conclusion identification)
- factor-enumeration (change space mapping)
- flip-point-detection (minimal flip search)
- counterfactual-scenario-construction (world building)
- fragility-measurement (distance computation)
- load-bearing-identification (proximity ranking)
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| minimal-change-search | Tactic: Generate candidate changes, detect flip-points where conclusion reverses, measure fragility as distance to nearest flip. |
| systematic-factor-ablation | Tactic: List all factors, remove one at a time, assess conclusion stability, rank factors by load-bearing importance. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| causal-claim-extraction | Extract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs. |
| counterfactual-scenario-construction | Construct precise, internally consistent counterfactual scenarios where specified factors are altered, then reason about the resulting conclusion. |
| factor-enumeration | List all key factors, conditions, and assumptions that support or enable the artifact's conclusion. |
| flip-point-detection | Find the minimal change magnitude along a dimension that causes the conclusion to flip from true to false. |
| fragility-measurement | Compute a fragility index from flip-point distances and degradation scores, summarizing how robust the conclusion is. |
| load-bearing-identification | Identify which factors are "load-bearing walls" — factors whose removal would collapse the conclusion. |