Competing Hypothesis Generation

Competing Hypothesis Generation

Generate genuinely distinct competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon to guard against confirmation bias and keep explanations open.

HARD-GATE

Not satisfied → stop and return error: primary hypothesis and phenomenon description required.

Pipeline

1. Precondition check: verify completeness of the primary hypothesis and phenomenon description
2. Alternative mechanism search: look for different causal mechanisms that can explain the same phenomenon
3. Alternative theory application: derive predictions about the same phenomenon from different theoretical frameworks
4. Reverse reasoning: consider explanations with the opposite causal direction
5. Deduplication: ensure each competing hypothesis is mechanistically distinct from the primary hypothesis and from the other competing hypotheses
6. Output competing hypothesis list

Output Format

[
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "CH1",
    "statement": "Competing hypothesis statement",
    "mechanism": "Different causal mechanism from the primary hypothesis",
    "theoretical_basis": "Theory or reasoning supporting this alternative",
    "key_difference": "How this differs mechanistically from the primary hypothesis",
    "shared_prediction": "Prediction shared with primary hypothesis (makes discrimination hard)",
    "unique_prediction": "Prediction unique to this hypothesis (enables discrimination)"
  }
]

At least 2 competing hypotheses, each mechanistically distinct from the primary hypothesis.