Sensitivity Analysis
Identify which assumptions are most critical — rank by impact on conclusions.
Design Philosophy
This campaign is a strategy book — CC reads, internalizes, and autonomously constructs an approach.
Strategy Routing
| Signal |
Strategy |
| quick screening, Morris method, OAT, preliminary elimination |
→ parameter-screening |
| variance decomposition, Sobol indices, contribution, interaction effects |
→ variance-decomposition |
| assumption criticality, perturbation, negation, re-derivation |
→ assumption-criticality |
| uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo, distributions, Bayesian |
→ uncertainty-propagation |
| decision sensitivity, EVPI, influence diagrams, tornado diagrams |
→ decision-sensitivity |
Available Tactics
- screening-then-decomposition — Morris quick screen then Sobol precise decomposition
- assumption-perturbation — one-at-a-time assumption negation and re-derivation
- uncertainty-cascade — Monte Carlo propagation through model
Available SOPs
Import (5): web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research
Subagent (11): morris-screening, sobol-decomposition, interaction-detection, assumption-extraction, negation-definition, re-derivation, conclusion-sensitivity-measurement, distribution-assignment, monte-carlo-sampling, critical-path-identification, sensitivity-synthesis
Shared (1): assumption-surfacing
Context Management
context-checkpoint after each strategy completes.
Available Strategies
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Strategy |
When to use |
| assumption-criticality |
Measure how much conclusions change when each assumption is negated. Ranks assumptions by their impact on the final result. |
| decision-sensitivity |
Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute EVPI to prioritize uncertainty reduction. |
| parameter-screening |
Quick Morris method screening to identify which parameters have large effects and which can be safely ignored. |
| uncertainty-propagation |
Propagate input uncertainties through the model via Monte Carlo sampling. Identifies which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty. |
| variance-decomposition |
Sobol variance decomposition — compute first-order and total-order sensitivity indices to quantify each parameter's contribution to output variance. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP |
When to use |
| context-checkpoint |
Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Each append MUST contain >=500 lines of markdown covering both process and results. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. |
| context-init |
Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. |
1---2name: deep-insight-sensitivity-analysis-23description: Sensitivity Analysis Campaign — identify which assumptions are most critical by measuring their impact on conclusions. 5 strategies (parameter-screening, variance-decomposition, assumption-criticality, uncertainty-propagation, decision-sensitivity), 3 tactics, 11 subagent SOPs.4---56# Sensitivity Analysis78Identify which assumptions are most critical — rank by impact on conclusions.910## Design Philosophy1112This campaign is a strategy book — CC reads, internalizes, and autonomously constructs an approach.1314## Strategy Routing1516| Signal | Strategy |17|--------|----------|18| quick screening, Morris method, OAT, preliminary elimination | → parameter-screening |19| variance decomposition, Sobol indices, contribution, interaction effects | → variance-decomposition |20| assumption criticality, perturbation, negation, re-derivation | → assumption-criticality |21| uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo, distributions, Bayesian | → uncertainty-propagation |22| decision sensitivity, EVPI, influence diagrams, tornado diagrams | → decision-sensitivity |2324## Available Tactics2526- screening-then-decomposition — Morris quick screen then Sobol precise decomposition27- assumption-perturbation — one-at-a-time assumption negation and re-derivation28- uncertainty-cascade — Monte Carlo propagation through model2930## Available SOPs3132**Import (5):** web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research3334**Subagent (11):** morris-screening, sobol-decomposition, interaction-detection, assumption-extraction, negation-definition, re-derivation, conclusion-sensitivity-measurement, distribution-assignment, monte-carlo-sampling, critical-path-identification, sensitivity-synthesis3536**Shared (1):** assumption-surfacing3738## Context Management3940context-checkpoint after each strategy completes.4142<!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->4344## Available Strategies4546Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.4748| Strategy | When to use |49| --- | --- |50| assumption-criticality | Measure how much conclusions change when each assumption is negated. Ranks assumptions by their impact on the final result. |51| decision-sensitivity | Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute EVPI to prioritize uncertainty reduction. |52| parameter-screening | Quick Morris method screening to identify which parameters have large effects and which can be safely ignored. |53| uncertainty-propagation | Propagate input uncertainties through the model via Monte Carlo sampling. Identifies which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty. |54| variance-decomposition | Sobol variance decomposition — compute first-order and total-order sensitivity indices to quantify each parameter's contribution to output variance. |5556## Available SOPs5758Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.5960| SOP | When to use |61| --- | --- |62| context-checkpoint | Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Each append MUST contain >=500 lines of markdown covering both process and results. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. |63| context-init | Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. |6465<!-- END available-tables (generated) -->
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