Failure Anticipation Campaign
Core question: If this artifact fails, how will it fail?
Methodology Sources
- Klein (2007) — Pre-Mortem technique: assume failure, retrospect causes
- AIAG-VDA FMEA Handbook (2019) — 7-step FMEA with Action Priority
- IEC 60812 — Failure modes and effects analysis standard
Strategy Routing
| Artifact Type |
Primary Strategy |
Fallback Strategy |
| hypothesis, claim |
prospective-hindsight |
design-fmea |
| research-question |
design-fmea |
process-fmea |
| idea, approach |
design-fmea |
prospective-hindsight |
| experiment-design |
process-fmea |
design-fmea |
| gap |
risk-prioritization |
prospective-hindsight |
Budget Table
| Parameter |
S (Quick) |
M (Standard) |
L (Deep) |
| Failure modes |
8 |
20 |
40 |
| Failure chain depth |
2 |
4 |
6 |
| Mitigation measures |
3 |
8 |
15 |
| Re-scoring rounds |
1 |
2 |
3 |
Tactics
- premortem-to-fmea-pipeline — Pre-mortem screens, high-risk items trigger full FMEA
- failure-chain-tracing — Trace upstream causes and downstream effects
- mitigation-validation — Mini-FMEA on proposed mitigations to verify no new risks
Context Management
Each subagent operates in isolated context. Pre-mortem facilitation runs first to generate rapid failure scenarios. High-severity items are passed to FMEA subagents for structured analysis. Severity/Occurrence/Detection scores flow through action-priority-matrix for classification. Mitigations are validated via re-scoring loop.
Output
Produces FailureAnticipationReport containing: failure mode catalog, cause-effect chains, S/O/D scores, action priority classification (H/M/L), mitigation measures, and post-mitigation re-scores.
Available Strategies
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Strategy |
When to use |
| design-fmea |
Strategy: Research design-level FMEA — function analysis, failure mode identification, severity/occurrence/detection scoring per AIAG-VDA 2019. |
| mitigation-design |
Strategy: Design prevention, detection, and response measures for high-priority failure modes. Produces actionable countermeasures validated via re-scoring. |
| process-fmea |
Strategy: Research execution process FMEA — analyzes how the research process itself can fail during execution, distinct from design-level failures. |
| prospective-hindsight |
Strategy: Klein pre-mortem — assume the artifact has failed, then retrospect plausible causes. Generates rapid failure scenario catalog. |
| risk-prioritization |
Strategy: Action Priority matrix — classifies failure modes into H/M/L priority using severity-weighted scoring per AIAG-VDA 2019 Action Priority tables. |
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic |
When to use |
| failure-chain-tracing |
Tactic: Trace upstream causes and downstream effects of each failure mode. Builds multi-level cause-mode-effect chains for systemic understanding. |
| mitigation-validation |
Tactic: Run mini-FMEA on proposed mitigations to verify they do not introduce new failure modes. Prevents mitigation-induced risks. |
| premortem-to-fmea-pipeline |
Tactic: Pre-mortem rapid screening feeds high-risk items into full FMEA analysis. Bridges fast intuitive generation with systematic structured analysis. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP |
When to use |
| context-checkpoint |
Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Covers both process and results with genuine substance. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. |
| context-init |
Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. |
| mitigation-proposal |
Proposes concrete mitigation strategies for identified weaknesses. Generates prevention, detection, and response measures with feasibility assessment. |
| stress-test-saturation-detection |
Determines whether validation has reached saturation — no new weaknesses or failure modes being discovered. Used by all 5 campaigns as termination signal. |
| verdict-synthesis |
Synthesizes findings from a completed campaign into typed verdict reports. Produces DebateVerdict, RedTeamReport, FailureAnticipationReport, CounterfactualMap, or AdversarialStressReport depending on campaign. Also supports cross-campaign StressTestSummary. |
1---2name: failure-anticipation3description: Campaign: Forward-looking failure analysis combining pre-mortem rapid screening with systematic FMEA deep-dive. Core question: If this artifact fails, how will it fail? Methods: Klein Pre-Mortem 2007, AIAG-VDA FMEA 2019, IEC 60812.4---56# Failure Anticipation Campaign78Core question: **If this artifact fails, how will it fail?**910## Methodology Sources1112- Klein (2007) — Pre-Mortem technique: assume failure, retrospect causes13- AIAG-VDA FMEA Handbook (2019) — 7-step FMEA with Action Priority14- IEC 60812 — Failure modes and effects analysis standard1516## Strategy Routing1718| Artifact Type | Primary Strategy | Fallback Strategy |19|---|---|---|20| hypothesis, claim | prospective-hindsight | design-fmea |21| research-question | design-fmea | process-fmea |22| idea, approach | design-fmea | prospective-hindsight |23| experiment-design | process-fmea | design-fmea |24| gap | risk-prioritization | prospective-hindsight |2526## Budget Table2728| Parameter | S (Quick) | M (Standard) | L (Deep) |29|---|---|---|---|30| Failure modes | 8 | 20 | 40 |31| Failure chain depth | 2 | 4 | 6 |32| Mitigation measures | 3 | 8 | 15 |33| Re-scoring rounds | 1 | 2 | 3 |3435## Tactics3637- **premortem-to-fmea-pipeline** — Pre-mortem screens, high-risk items trigger full FMEA38- **failure-chain-tracing** — Trace upstream causes and downstream effects39- **mitigation-validation** — Mini-FMEA on proposed mitigations to verify no new risks4041## Context Management4243Each subagent operates in isolated context. Pre-mortem facilitation runs first to generate rapid failure scenarios. High-severity items are passed to FMEA subagents for structured analysis. Severity/Occurrence/Detection scores flow through action-priority-matrix for classification. Mitigations are validated via re-scoring loop.4445## Output4647Produces `FailureAnticipationReport` containing: failure mode catalog, cause-effect chains, S/O/D scores, action priority classification (H/M/L), mitigation measures, and post-mitigation re-scores.4849<!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->5051## Available Strategies5253Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.5455| Strategy | When to use |56| --- | --- |57| design-fmea | Strategy: Research design-level FMEA — function analysis, failure mode identification, severity/occurrence/detection scoring per AIAG-VDA 2019. |58| mitigation-design | Strategy: Design prevention, detection, and response measures for high-priority failure modes. Produces actionable countermeasures validated via re-scoring. |59| process-fmea | Strategy: Research execution process FMEA — analyzes how the research process itself can fail during execution, distinct from design-level failures. |60| prospective-hindsight | Strategy: Klein pre-mortem — assume the artifact has failed, then retrospect plausible causes. Generates rapid failure scenario catalog. |61| risk-prioritization | Strategy: Action Priority matrix — classifies failure modes into H/M/L priority using severity-weighted scoring per AIAG-VDA 2019 Action Priority tables. |6263## Available Tactics6465Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.6667| Tactic | When to use |68| --- | --- |69| failure-chain-tracing | Tactic: Trace upstream causes and downstream effects of each failure mode. Builds multi-level cause-mode-effect chains for systemic understanding. |70| mitigation-validation | Tactic: Run mini-FMEA on proposed mitigations to verify they do not introduce new failure modes. Prevents mitigation-induced risks. |71| premortem-to-fmea-pipeline | Tactic: Pre-mortem rapid screening feeds high-risk items into full FMEA analysis. Bridges fast intuitive generation with systematic structured analysis. |7273## Available SOPs7475Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.7677| SOP | When to use |78| --- | --- |79| context-checkpoint | Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Covers both process and results with genuine substance. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. |80| context-init | Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. |81| mitigation-proposal | Proposes concrete mitigation strategies for identified weaknesses. Generates prevention, detection, and response measures with feasibility assessment. |82| stress-test-saturation-detection | Determines whether validation has reached saturation — no new weaknesses or failure modes being discovered. Used by all 5 campaigns as termination signal. |83| verdict-synthesis | Synthesizes findings from a completed campaign into typed verdict reports. Produces DebateVerdict, RedTeamReport, FailureAnticipationReport, CounterfactualMap, or AdversarialStressReport depending on campaign. Also supports cross-campaign StressTestSummary. |8485<!-- END available-tables (generated) -->
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