yogsoth-ai Strategy: Narrative Scenario
Methodology
Shell Scenario Method (Wack/van der Heijden). Construct rich, internally consistent narratives that illuminate qualitatively different futures. Focus on storytelling that reveals causal mechanisms and decision points rather than exhaustive enumeration.
Key principles:
- Narrative coherence: Each scenario tells a believable story with cause-and-effect logic
- Divergence: Scenarios must be qualitatively different, not variations on a theme
- Decision relevance: Scenarios illuminate choices the research team faces
- Memorable framing: Each scenario gets a vivid name that captures its essence
Execution Flow
Identify drivers → spawn
scenario-driver-identification- Input: research context, planning horizon
- Output: key uncertainty drivers ranked by impact × uncertainty
Select axes → identify the 2 highest-impact, highest-uncertainty drivers as scenario axes
- Creates a 2×2 matrix of four qualitatively different futures
Construct narratives → spawn
scenario-narrative-construction(×4)- Input: axis position, driver context, research approach
- Output: rich narrative per quadrant
Assess impact → spawn
scenario-impact-assessment(×4)- Input: scenario narrative, research approach
- Output: impact analysis per scenario
Score robustness → spawn
robustness-scoring- Input: all impact assessments
- Output: robustness index
Synthesize → spawn
scenario-synthesis- Input: all scenarios, robustness scores
- Output: final report with strategic implications
Budget Gate
| Step | Token Budget | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Driver identification | 8K | PESTEL scan |
| Axis selection | 4K | Ranking and selection |
| Narrative construction | 15K × 4 | Rich storytelling |
| Impact assessment | 10K × 4 | Per scenario |
| Robustness scoring | 8K | Aggregation |
| Synthesis | 12K | Final compilation |
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| cross-consistency-filtering | Orchestrates pairwise consistency evaluation and narrative construction to filter the morphological field |
| strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis |
| scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning |
| scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions |
| scenario-narrative-construction | Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method |
| scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |