yogsoth-ai Resource Envelope Estimation
Purpose: Produce credible resource estimates for implementing a candidate. Combines parametric estimation (model-based), analogous estimation (reference-class), and three-point PERT estimation (optimistic/likely/pessimistic) to bound the resource envelope with quantified uncertainty.
When to use:
- A candidate has passed initial readiness screening and needs resource scoping
- Stakeholders need budget/timeline estimates to make investment decisions
- You need to compare resource requirements across multiple candidates
Budget
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| Estimate dimensions | >= 3 (time, cost, personnel) |
| Precision range | +/-30% initial, +/-10% refined |
| Reference analogies | >= 2 per estimate |
State Ledger
| Key | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| candidate | object | The candidate being estimated |
| parametric_estimate | object | Model-based estimate |
| analogous_estimate | object | Reference-class estimate |
| pert_estimate | object | Three-point estimate |
| envelope | object | Synthesized resource envelope |
| confidence_level | float | Confidence in the estimate |
Available Tactics
| Tactic | When |
|---|---|
| multi-dimensional-readiness-scan | When resource estimation requires understanding current maturity first |
| staged-gate-evaluation | When resources need to be estimated per stage gate |
Available SOPs
| SOP | Purpose |
|---|---|
| dimension-assessment | Assess resource dimension readiness |
| gate-criteria-definition | Define resource gates |
| feasibility-synthesis | Synthesize resource estimates into overall feasibility |
Execution Guidance
- Decompose the candidate into estimable work packages
- For each work package, apply parametric estimation using known cost drivers
- Identify >= 2 analogous projects and extract their actual resource consumption
- Construct three-point estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) for each package
- Synthesize into a resource envelope with confidence intervals
- Flag any estimates with confidence < 0.5 for further investigation
Output Format
resource_envelope:
candidate: <name>
time:
optimistic: <duration>
likely: <duration>
pessimistic: <duration>
expected: <PERT weighted>
cost:
optimistic: <amount>
likely: <amount>
pessimistic: <amount>
expected: <PERT weighted>
personnel:
roles: [{role, count, duration}]
total_person_months: N
analogies_used: [{project, relevance, actual_cost, actual_time}]
confidence: 0.X
precision_band: "+/-N%"
key_assumptions: [...]
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| multi-dimensional-readiness-scan | Assess readiness across multiple dimensions, synthesize into radar visualization, and identify bottleneck dimensions. |
| staged-gate-evaluation | Define gate criteria for each stage, evaluate candidates at each gate, and render go/kill/recycle decisions with evidence. |