Strategy Robustness Testing

Tactic: Strategy Robustness Testing

Orchestration Pattern

1. Spawn impact assessment → scenario-impact-assessment (per scenario)

   • Pass: scenario narrative, research approach description, evaluation dimensions
   • Receive: multi-dimensional impact analysis per scenario

2. Validate impact assessments

   • Check: All evaluation dimensions covered?
   • Check: Impact ratings justified with reasoning?
   • Check: Assessments distinguish between scenarios (not all identical)?
   • If validation fails: re-spawn with clarified criteria

3. Compile assessment matrix

   • Rows: scenarios
   • Columns: evaluation dimensions (feasibility, relevance, competitive position, resource needs, timeline)
   • Cells: impact ratings (1-5 scale)

4. Spawn robustness scoring → robustness-scoring

   • Pass: compiled assessment matrix, scenario probabilities, weighting preferences
   • Receive: robustness index, sensitivity analysis, pivot triggers

5. Validate robustness results

   • Check: Index is well-calibrated (not always 50 or always 90)
   • Check: Pivot triggers are specific and measurable
   • Check: Sensitivity analysis identifies which scenarios matter most
   • If validation fails: re-spawn with recalibrated inputs

6. Identify contingencies

   • For each scenario where robustness < 50: define contingency action
   • For each pivot trigger: define monitoring mechanism
   • Compile into actionable contingency plan

Quality Checks

• Every scenario has a complete impact assessment
• Robustness index reflects genuine variation across scenarios
• Pivot triggers are observable and measurable
• Contingency actions are specific and feasible
• Results distinguish between "adapt" and "abandon" thresholds

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.