yogsoth-ai Structural Counterfactual Strategy
Pearl Three-Step: Abduction, Action, Prediction applied to artifact validation.
Method
- causal-claim-extraction identifies causal structure in the artifact
- factor-enumeration lists all factors in the causal model
- Abduction: fit background variables to observed evidence
- Action: single-factor-removal intervenes on one factor at a time
- Prediction: counterfactual-scenario-construction derives new outcome
- necessity-evaluation and sufficiency-evaluation score each factor
- load-bearing-identification synthesizes results
Budget Table
| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factors modeled | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| Interventions per factor | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Prediction depth | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Orchestration
causal-claim-extraction → factor-enumeration
→ [for each factor]:
single-factor-removal (abduction + action)
→ counterfactual-scenario-construction (prediction)
→ necessity-evaluation + sufficiency-evaluation
→ load-bearing-identification → fragility-measurement
Subagents
- causal-claim-extraction (model building)
- factor-enumeration (variable identification)
- single-factor-removal (intervention)
- counterfactual-scenario-construction (prediction)
- necessity-evaluation (PN scoring)
- sufficiency-evaluation (PS scoring)
- load-bearing-identification (synthesis)
- fragility-measurement (aggregation)
Available Tactics
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| causal-necessity-testing | Tactic: Extract causal claims, evaluate probability of necessity (PN) and sufficiency (PS) for each, classify into necessity-sufficiency quadrants. |
| systematic-factor-ablation | Tactic: List all factors, remove one at a time, assess conclusion stability, rank factors by load-bearing importance. |
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| causal-claim-extraction | Extract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs. |
| counterfactual-scenario-construction | Construct precise, internally consistent counterfactual scenarios where specified factors are altered, then reason about the resulting conclusion. |
| factor-enumeration | List all key factors, conditions, and assumptions that support or enable the artifact's conclusion. |
| fragility-measurement | Compute a fragility index from flip-point distances and degradation scores, summarizing how robust the conclusion is. |
| load-bearing-identification | Identify which factors are "load-bearing walls" — factors whose removal would collapse the conclusion. |
| necessity-evaluation | Evaluate the probability of necessity (PN) for a causal factor — would the conclusion fail if this factor were absent? |
| single-factor-removal | Remove one specified factor from the artifact's support structure and reason about how the conclusion changes. |
| sufficiency-evaluation | Evaluate the probability of sufficiency (PS) for a causal factor — would this factor alone be enough to produce the conclusion? |