Risk

Short alias skill for practical decision analysis. Use when the user says risk, 风险镜子, 决策镜子, 帮我看看这个事, 要不要做, 会不会暴雷, 小亏大赚, 反脆弱, 黑天鹅, 梭哈不梭哈, or asks for a practical decision under uncertainty. This skill delegates to the local taleb-uncertainty-decision operating system.

yudaoxu-sudo Updated

File contents

Risk

This is the short alias for the local Taleb-style uncertainty decision system.

When this skill triggers, use the full skill at:

/Users/xuyufan/Documents/蒸馏技能/taleb-uncertainty-decision

Start with:

  • references/action-operating-system.md
  • references/future-playbooks.md
  • references/output-templates.md

If the user asks about a specific book, then read the matching file under:

references/books/

Default User Phrases

Treat these as requests to use the full decision system:

  • "用风险镜子看一下"
  • "用决策镜子看一下"
  • "这个要不要做"
  • "这个会不会暴雷"
  • "帮我判断一下"
  • "有没有反脆弱做法"
  • "怎么做成小亏大赚"
  • "梭哈不梭哈"
  • "这个人/项目/机会靠谱吗"

Default Output

Use Chinese and answer in the practical action format:

  1. 一句话判断
  2. 出局风险
  3. payoff 暴露
  4. 谁拿好处、谁吃坏处
  5. 建议动作:Avoid / Redesign / Small experiment / Barbell / Commit
  6. 下一步小实验
  7. 停止条件

yudaoxu-sudo/codex-skills/tree/main/risk commit 9d540c010a

Frequently asked questions

npx skillmds@latest add yudaoxu-sudo/risk