Risk
This is the short alias for the local Taleb-style uncertainty decision system.
When this skill triggers, use the full skill at:
/Users/xuyufan/Documents/蒸馏技能/taleb-uncertainty-decision
Start with:
references/action-operating-system.mdreferences/future-playbooks.mdreferences/output-templates.md
If the user asks about a specific book, then read the matching file under:
references/books/
Default User Phrases
Treat these as requests to use the full decision system:
- "用风险镜子看一下"
- "用决策镜子看一下"
- "这个要不要做"
- "这个会不会暴雷"
- "帮我判断一下"
- "有没有反脆弱做法"
- "怎么做成小亏大赚"
- "梭哈不梭哈"
- "这个人/项目/机会靠谱吗"
Default Output
Use Chinese and answer in the practical action format:
- 一句话判断
- 出局风险
- payoff 暴露
- 谁拿好处、谁吃坏处
- 建议动作:Avoid / Redesign / Small experiment / Barbell / Commit
- 下一步小实验
- 停止条件