Competitor Research, With Verdicts
Most "competitive analysis" produces lists. Decisions need verdicts. This method produces one of three per candidate, forces honest kills, and sharpens only the survivors.
Process
- Generate 3–6 candidates from accumulated signals — not from a blank mind: gaps you noticed while building adjacent things, "why does nobody do X" moments, incumbents' sunsetting announcements, community complaint threads. Prior signals beat fresh brainstorming.
- Fan out one research agent per candidate, each instructed to:
- search aggressively with multiple query formulations (English + the market's other languages), GitHub API and npm/PyPI registry facts (stars, last-push dates, download counts) over marketing claims;
- enumerate DIRECT competitors, adjacent tools, and substitutes (vendor built-ins are the stealth killer);
- end with a verdict and a named strongest incumbent.
- Apply the rubric (below). The verdict is about the SPACE, not your ego.
- Kill honestly. A crowded space is a crowded space. Record the kill and the reason — it is cheap insurance against re-litigating the idea later.
- Sharpen the wedge for survivors only: what exact cell of the matrix is empty? Write the one-sentence differentiation, then the honest kill criteria — which incumbent move, on what clock, erases you?
The verdict rubric
- (a) Empty — nobody does this. Verify twice; empty cells are usually observation errors or demand illusions (an identical implementation sitting at 4 stars after 319 commits is a demand signal, not whitespace).
- (b) Weak entries — exists, but every player has a disqualifier: dormant (6+ months), single-platform, no maintenance, wrong shape. Winnable if you can name WHY they all stalled.
- (c) Strong incumbent — a well-executed tool with distribution owns it. Do not enter head-on. Only a documented, structural gap survives (e.g. "no lockfile-first flow" against a registry giant), and it carries a clock.
Disciplines that keep it honest
- Facts over vibes: star counts and last-push dates from APIs; weekly downloads from registries. "Popular" is not a number.
- Check the vendor's own roadmap surface: the most common killer is the platform shipping your feature natively. Ask: why hasn't the vendor done this? (Answer sometimes: their business model points elsewhere — that gap is durable.)
- Freshness warning: a "underserved" conclusion older than ~2 months is suspect in fast markets. One observed case: a niche flagged empty was filled by an 11k-star incumbent's feature ship within eight weeks.
- The substitute test: for each incumbent ask "what do people use when they don't use this?" — the answer is often the real competitor.
- Kill-tally sanity: across 5 rounds and ~20 candidates, roughly three-quarters should die. If everything survives your research, your research is flattering you.