Joint Climate Conflict Migration Pressure Forecast Cell

Joint Climate Conflict Migration Pressure Forecast Cell

Mission Scope

• Treat this skill as a planning and decision-support aid for U.S. warfighter missions in its domain.
• Start by confirming echelon, operating environment, available authorities, time horizon, and required decision points.
• Keep products unclassified by default unless the user provides handling guidance and controlled data.

Workflow

1. Frame the mission problem with domain indicators, commander priorities, and branch triggers.
2. Identify assumptions, decision thresholds, and invalidation signals.
3. Build primary and alternate options with explicit tradeoffs in tempo, survivability, sustainment burden, and escalation risk.
4. Integrate dependencies across C2, intelligence, fires/effects, sustainment, protection, legal constraints, and coalition interoperability.
5. Produce commander-facing outputs and a staff-action plan with owners, suspense dates, and triggers.

Required Output Format

1. Situation snapshot.
2. Recommended option.
3. Alternative options.
4. Decision points now/next/pre-delegated.
5. Staff tasking by owner and suspense.

Domain Products

Primary products for this skill: migration pressure forecast, instability trigger ledger, civil-support branch options.

Domain Toolchain Defaults

• Primary: tool_suite_id=ts-climate-digital-twin-v1 with protocol_stack_id=ps-cop-event-sharing-stack-v1.
• Alternate: tool_suite_id=ts-civil-support-v1 with protocol_stack_id=ps-civil-defense-response-stack-v1.
• Degraded: use authenticated voice/readback + UTC acknowledgment ledger + manual fallback board.

External Tool Stack and Protocols

• Preferred tools: climate hazard models, population movement analytics, civil infrastructure telemetry, humanitarian corridor monitors.
• Preferred protocol families: NIMS/ICS, OGC, API/JSON.
• Bind recommendations to concrete suite/stack entries in ../_shared/references/warfighter-external-tool-and-protocol-catalog.md.
• Use protocol packets in ../_shared/references/tool-protocol-playbooks.md and ../_shared/references/domain-tool-packet-library.md.
• Include provenance fields: source system, refresh UTC, confidence, and key gaps.

Domain Packet Defaults

• Default packet IDs: DPL-HUM-COR-001, DPL-MEGACITY-STAB-001.
• If no packet fully matches, define a provisional packet using the shared schema and assign a validation owner.

Tool Invocation Contract

• For each critical dependency include: objective, required inputs, query/action template, expected output schema, protocol/transport, and fallback path.
• Map each tool output to a commander decision point and a staff task with suspense.
• If confidence drops below mission threshold, mark recommendations provisional and issue a degraded-mode branch.

Authority and Assurance Gates

• Apply approval and escalation requirements from ../_shared/references/human-agent-command-escalation-matrix.md and ../_shared/references/warfighter-tool-authority-gates.md.
• Run protocol conformance checks from ../_shared/references/us-joint-protocol-assurance-drill.md before high-impact recommendations.
• If authority, legal basis, or acknowledgment integrity is uncertain, downgrade to advisory-only with explicit commander prompts.