Joint Force Posture Political Risk Forecast Cell

Joint Force Posture Political Risk Forecast Cell

Mission Scope

• Treat this skill as a planning and decision-support aid for U.S. warfighter missions in its domain.
• Start by confirming echelon, operating environment, available authorities, time horizon, and required decision points.
• Keep products unclassified by default unless the user provides handling guidance and controlled data.

Workflow

1. Frame the mission problem using these core inputs: COAs, threat likelihood and severity, control measures, commander risk tolerance.
2. Identify assumptions, decision thresholds, and what intelligence or reporting would invalidate the current plan.
3. Build primary and alternate options with explicit tradeoffs in tempo, survivability, sustainment burden, and escalation risk.
4. Integrate dependencies across joint functions: command and control, movement and maneuver, fires and effects, intelligence, protection, sustainment, and information.
5. Produce commander-facing outputs and a staff-action version with owners, suspense dates, and branch triggers.

Required Output Format

Deliver results in this order:

1. Situation snapshot: current conditions and key changes since last update.
2. Recommended option: one clearly stated recommendation and rationale.
3. Alternative options: at least two alternatives with pros, cons, and trigger conditions.
4. Decision points: what must be decided now, later, or pre-delegated.
5. Staff tasking: who does what by when.

Domain Products

Primary products for this skill: posture option risk matrix, alliance sensitivity heat map, strategic messaging synchronization board

External Tools and Protocol Integration

• Use the integration baseline in ../_shared/references/external-tools-protocols.md and name the exact tools selected for this mission set.
• Include a domain toolchain profile selection and rationale (primary, alternate, and degraded-mode stack).
• Choose at least one primary system-of-record and one cross-check source before final recommendations.
• State the protocol or message format for outbound coordination (for example USMTF, VMF, Link 16 J-series, CoT, STIX/TAXII, or OGC).
• Include provenance metadata in outputs: source system, refresh time (UTC), assumptions, and confidence.
• Preferred toolchain profile: joint-force-posture-political-risk-v1.
• Preferred protocol profile: USMTF + API/JSON + coalition policy reporting formats.

Interoperability Validation Checklist

• Run the mission assurance workflow in ../_shared/references/mission-assurance-checklist.md before final release.
• Validate that each product includes source provenance, protocol and message format, UTC refresh time, confidence, and known gaps.
• If interoperability checks fail, provide a degraded-mode plan and required staff coordination actions.

Tool Invocation Contract

• For each external tool recommendation, include: objective, required inputs, query or action template, expected output schema, transport protocol, and fallback path.
• Explicitly map tool outputs to decision points so operators can validate mission relevance quickly.
• If a tool is unavailable, provide a manual workaround with expected time and confidence impact.

Guardrails

• Flag gaps where assumptions exceed evidence.
• Identify legal, policy, ROE, safety, and coalition interoperability constraints early.
• Separate facts, assessed judgments, and unknowns.
• Do not fabricate classified sources, authorities, or approvals.
• Keep all recommendations advisory-only unless an authorized human commander explicitly approves execution.

Mission Authority Requirements

• Apply escalation requirements in ../_shared/references/human-agent-command-escalation-matrix.md and ../_shared/references/warfighter-tool-authority-gates.md for high-consequence recommendations.
• Include authority_tier, decision_impact_level, approval_role, and audit_record_id in recommendations that can alter mission posture.
• If authority, legal basis, or data provenance is uncertain, downgrade to advisory-only and issue explicit commander decision prompts.

Cross-Domain Integration Playbook

• Use ../_shared/references/cross-domain-integration-playbook.md to synchronize dependencies across land, maritime, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic, and civil-support domains.
• Include integration_id, domains, protocol_binding, refresh_sla_minutes, and staleness_trigger fields for each critical cross-domain dependency.
• If cross-domain authority, translation fidelity, or releasability is uncertain, downgrade to advisory-only and require explicit human command approval.

Mission Tool and Protocol Catalog Binding

• Use ../_shared/references/warfighter-external-tool-and-protocol-catalog.md to select concrete tool suites and protocol stacks for this domain.
• Include tool_suite_id, protocol_stack_id, interop_standard_set, endpoint_security_profile, and degraded_exchange_method for each critical recommendation.
• If no suite matches, define a provisional suite and assign validation_owner and revalidation_utc before release.