romainsimon
- 11 skills
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- 8 hours ago last updated
- ▌ Reading Rivals · romainsimon bundleModels what a competitor will do next and what happens if you respond - best response, equilibrium, and the difference between a rival who optimises perfectly and one who does not. Use before a price change or price war, when a competitor launches something, when deciding whether to match a rival's move, when analysing a market with few players, or when someone asks "what will they do if we do this".
- ▌ Tracking Beliefs · romainsimon bundleSeparates signal from noise in metrics you cannot observe directly, updating a belief from evidence instead of reacting to the latest reading - Bayesian updates over competing explanations, and a filter that says whether this week's move is real. Use when a metric moves and someone wants to act, when diagnosing why traffic or revenue changed, when a dashboard number contradicts intuition, or when deciding whether a trend is real yet.
- ▌ Allocating Effort · romainsimon bundleSplits scarce time, budget or traffic across competing products, channels, campaigns or variants by treating them as a multi-armed bandit - Thompson sampling over beta posteriors, with optimism for anything not yet tried enough to judge. Use when deciding what to work on next, how to divide a marketing budget, which product to prioritise, whether to kill something that is underperforming, or when picking a winner among test variants.
- ▌ Framing Decisions · romainsimon bundleTurns a vague "what should we do about X" into a scored decision - explicit actions, an explicit unknown, an explicit prior, and one utility scale - then picks by maximum expected utility and checks the result for framing effects. Use when facing a choice between options under uncertainty, when a decision has stalled in circular debate, when someone asks "should we do A or B", or before writing any decision record, strategy memo, or roadmap commitment.
- ▌ Planning Horizons · romainsimon bundleDecides how far ahead to plan, what to discount future payoffs by, and which backlog items can be dropped without analysis - using receding-horizon planning, an explicit discount factor, and branch-and-bound pruning against the incumbent. Use when building a roadmap, prioritising a backlog, arguing about short-term versus long-term, setting quarterly or annual plans, or when planning has become an end in itself.
- ▌ Valuing Information · romainsimon bundlePrices research, tests, surveys, dashboards and experiments before running them, by computing how much the result would raise expected utility - which is zero whenever no outcome would change the decision. Use when someone proposes an A/B test, user survey, market study, competitor analysis, analytics build, consultant, pilot, or "let's gather more data", and when deciding how large a study needs to be.
- ▌ Stress Testing Plans · romainsimon bundleValidates a plan before committing to it - checks whether the ranking survives the assumptions, finds the most likely way it fails, and makes the trade-offs explicit via a Pareto frontier instead of an invented single score. Use before a launch, price change, migration, infrastructure change or major commitment, when running a premortem, when two objectives conflict, or when a decision depends on an assumption nobody has tested.
- ▌ Learning From Outcomes · romainsimon bundleTurns past decisions into calibrated judgment - scoring old predictions against what happened, assigning credit for delayed results, and separating a bad decision from a good decision that lost. Use during a retrospective, postmortem, quarterly or monthly review, when reviewing decisions taken 30+ days ago, when attributing a result to a cause, or when someone claims to have called something.
- ▌ Controleur Fiscal · romainsimonInspecteur des finances publiques IA. Simule un contrôle fiscal DGFIP complet sur les comptes d'une entreprise française (SASU, EURL, SAS, SARL). Analyse le FEC, la liasse fiscale, les charges déduites, le compte courant d'associé, la TVA, l'IS selon 8 axes de vérification. Identifie les chefs de redressement potentiels avec montants, base légale et niveaux de risque. Triggers: contrôle fiscal, redressement, vérification comptabilité, DGFIP, FEC, déductibilité, audit fiscal, tax audit
- ▌ Syndic · romainsimonGère un parc de copropriétés en France avec vue portfolio consolidée. Couvre administration, comptabilité (décret 2005, plan comptable copro, 5 annexes), assemblées générales (convocation, PV, notification), appels de fonds, travaux, fournisseurs, recouvrement d'impayés et transition de syndic. Maîtrise les majorités (art. 24, 25, 25-1, 26), le fonds de travaux (art. 14-2), le privilège immobilier (art. 19-2) et l'immatriculation RNC. Intégration Qonto pour le rapprochement bancaire. Utilisé pour toute question liée à la copropriété, au syndic bénévole ou coopératif, aux charges, tantièmes, AG, ou au droit de la copropriété (loi 1965, ALUR, ELAN).
- ▌ Fiscaliste · romainsimonFiscaliste IA pour la fiscalité personnelle des particuliers français : optimisation et déclaration de l'impôt sur le revenu, IFI, revenus du capital, revenus fonciers, equity salarial, crypto-actifs et PER. Couvre le calcul de l'IR (barème, quotient familial, décote, PAS, CEHR, revenus exceptionnels), la déclaration 2042 et annexes, les revenus du capital (PFU vs barème, PEA, assurance-vie, dividendes, plus-values), les revenus fonciers (micro/réel, déficit, LMNP, SCI IR), l'equity startup (RSU, BSPCE, stock-options, PEE/PERCO), la fiscalité crypto (PAMC, 2086), l'IFI et les déductions (PER, pension alimentaire). Triggers: impôt sur le revenu, IR, 2042, quotient familial, décote, PAS, PFU, flat tax, PEA, assurance-vie, LMNP, revenus fonciers, déficit foncier, SCI IR, RSU, BSPCE, stock-options, PEE/PERCO, crypto, 2086, IFI, PER, plafond PER, niche fiscale, optimisation fiscale, simulation IR, TMI. Hors scope : succession/donation (notaire), IS/SASU/arbitrage dividende-salaire/SCI IS (comptable).