Results for “posterior-predictive-checks”

Use when making a forward-looking claim with a checkable outcome (reply within 24h, error rate will drop, this skill will see more use) — record to state/predictions.jsonl with a review horizon so reflection can grade you later. Closes the in-the-moment double-loop.

当意识到当前行为模式可能导致不理想的未来，需要一种具体方法来激发改变动力时

Diagnose failures from runtime evidence before editing code.

在启动高风险项目或重要决策前，需要预先识别潜在失败点以增强心理韧性和方案鲁棒性时

Analyzes evaluation patterns across completed plans and evolves the superpowers checklists accordingly.

Perform a post-implementation retrospective analysis measuring spec adherence, implementation deviations, and lessons learned.

Verifies that tests for already-implemented behavior are meaningful by temporarily breaking the production code and confirming the test fails for the expected reason.

Track investment theses across their lifecycle — from screening idea to closed position with postmortem. Register theses from screener outputs, manage state transitions, attach position sizing, review due dates, and generate postmortem reports with P&L and MAE/MFE analysis.

BPPV Differential Diagnosis Checker

Detects Follow-Through Day (FTD) signals for market bottom confirmation using William O'Neil's methodology, with dual-index tracking and a state machine for rally attempt, FTD qualification, and post-FTD health monitoring.

Runs a hypothesis-driven debugging workflow that reproduces failures, forms discriminating tests, proves root cause via toggle, and delivers a fix, regression test, and postmortem.

Think through the consequences of consequences — not just what happens immediately, but what happens next, and next after that, across time. Load when a decision looks obviously good or obviously bad on initial read, when the user is optimising for a short-term outcome that might create a long-term problem, when unintended consequences are a concern, or when deep-thinking diagnoses a second-order frame. Triggers on "what are the downstream effects", "what happens after that", "unintended consequences", "think ahead on this", "long-term vs short-term", or "what comes after that". Based on Howard Marks second-level thinking and Farnam Street mental models. Most powerful for decisions with delayed consequences or systemic effects.

Iterate on a PR until CI passes. Use when you need to fix CI failures, address review feedback, or continuously push fixes until all checks are green. Automates the feedback-fix-push-wait cycle.

Screen US equities for parabolic exhaustion patterns, generate conditional pre-market short plans, and monitor intraday trigger signals using 5-min bars.

Detects lateral movement techniques including Pass-the-Hash, PsExec, WMI execution, RDP pivoting, and SMB-based spreading using SIEM correlation of Windows event logs, network flow data, and endpoint telemetry mapped to MITRE ATT&CK Lateral Movement (TA0008) techniques.

Provides expert guidance for systematic backtesting of trading strategies, covering methodology, stress testing, bias prevention, and result interpretation.

Check post-launch adoption for a published ORD package and recommend iterate, graduate, or archive

Evaluates a local pre-trade checklist before manual order entry, blocking planless, oversized, revenge-risk, market-regime-blocked, or circuit-breaker-blocked entries while journaling the decision for later review.

Run a pre-mortem — imagine the project has already failed one year from now and work backward to find the root causes before they happen. Load when the user asks for a pre-mortem, wants to imagine failure before committing, asks "what could go wrong before we start", "assume this fails — why", "risk analysis before launch", "what kills this project", "what could go wrong", or when deep-thinking diagnoses a pre-mortem frame. Based on Gary Klein's prospective hindsight method, which surfaces failure causes more effectively than forward risk analysis. Most useful right before a major commitment.

Map product assumptions by risk, confidence, evidence, and next validation step.

Use the retrospective skill to generate a post-release blameless

在启动一个重要项目或关键行动之前，用于主动识别和防范风险

PUA Pro extensions: self-evolution notes, compaction state continuity, KPI-style summaries, flavor switching, and feedback tools.

Require fresh evidence before claiming an implementation, fix, build, or test is complete.

Determines if PAC/PRA ratio and PAC levels indicate positive or provisionally positive screening for primary aldosteronism. Triggered when a clinician has PAC and PRA results and asks “Is this screening test positive for PA?” or needs to interpret borderline results.

Analyzes a completed phase diff for high-confidence behavior-preserving simplifications and applies only explicitly approved proposals, reducing duplication, dead code, needless complexity, or avoidable inefficiency.

Pre-landing PR review. (gstack)