adamriofc Financial Modeling
Connects sales → Income Statement → Balance Sheet → Cash Flow in one consistent, auditable model.
3-Statement Linkage
- Driver: sales (volume × price) → all other line items follow.
- Income Statement → net income → equity.
- Balance Sheet: assets (cash, receivables % of sales, inventory % of COGS, fixed assets + capex − depreciation) = liabilities + equity — always balanced.
- Cash Flow: net income + non-cash items ± changes in working capital − capex − debt payments.
Modeling Rules
- Each assumption input lives in a single cell and is referenced (not hard-coded in multiple places).
- All scenarios use the same drivers — only the assumption values change.
- Sensitivity table: 3 scenarios (pessimistic/base/optimistic) × 2 drivers (volume, price) — deterministic, no Monte Carlo.
- The model is checked: total assets = liabilities + equity in every period (balance check required).
Scope & Safety
- Use for: business plans, credit applications, testing the impact of assumptions.
- Do not use for: official financial reporting, acquisition valuation, or claims of prediction accuracy — a model is a thinking tool, not an oracle.
- All projections are labeled with assumptions + date; do not mix actual figures without labels.
- The accounting & tax standards used (SAK EMKM, PPh) must be stated and verified.
Worked Example
Input: sales 1 billion/month, margin 30%, receivables 30 days, inventory 45 days, capex 50 million, depreciation 10 million/month, pessimistic scenario = sales −10%. Output: pessimistic → sales 900 million, net income down ~30 million, operating cash flow down; balance check still shows zero difference on the Balance Sheet; sensitivity: | sales −10% | base | +10% | → | operating cash flow: X | Y | Z | — present a table for decision-making.