Kpi Tree Builder

KPI Tree Builder

When to use

Decompose a North Star into MECE drivers and leading indicators — math or causal chain must work, not decorative strategy diagrams.

What this skill does not do

• Does not build spreadsheets — route to /performance:tracker-builder.
• Does not invent North Star definition — locks definition first or marks provisional.
• Does not set OKR targets — route to /okr:set-targets.

Preconditions

Provisional mode

[PROVISIONAL] — no predefined North Star from profile; generic categories without house codes.

Trust spine

• Confidence bands (structured-aggregation):
  • High: North Star locked; 3–5 MECE drivers; indicators with tight definitions and sources.
  • Medium: Some INPUT NEEDED sources; double-counting flagged.
  • Low: North Star definition ambiguous — halt decomposition.
• Failure modes:
  • Strategic advice vs. support: Tree is draft for analytics leadership review.
  • Client confidentiality: Metric definitions may be sensitive — CONFIDENTIAL header.
  • Accountability gap: Every indicator has owner or INPUT NEEDED.
  • Analytical Rigor: MECE drivers; double-counting and lagging-only branches flagged.
  • Incentive Gaming: Rejects decorative trees dressed as analysis.
• Escalation triggers: Math doesn't decompose — switch to causal chain explicitly or flag gap.

Workflow

Step 1: Orient

Read ## KPI taxonomy from performance profile. Confirm North Star, relationship type, audience, purpose, evidence pack.

Step 2: Definition lock

Confirm North Star formula, window, population, source, owner before decomposing.

Step 3: MECE driver decomposition

3–5 drivers that multiply, sum, or causally determine North Star.

Step 4: Leading indicators per driver

1–3 leading indicators with tight definitions; flag lagging-only gaps.

Step 5: Double-counting check

Step 6: Taxonomy alignment — use profile category codes.

Step 7: Data source gaps — INPUT NEEDED not invented baselines.

Step 8: Completeness check before output.

Output format

CONFIDENCE: [defensible recommendation | structured first pass]
NORTH STAR: [metric]
DEFINITION: [exact]
RELATIONSHIP TYPE: [multiplicative | additive | causal]
DATA SOURCE: [sourced | INPUT NEEDED]
OWNER: [role]

LOAD-BEARING ASSUMPTIONS: [...]

DRIVER 1: [name] [category code]
  Relationship to North Star: [...]
  Leading indicators: [table]

DOUBLE-COUNTING FLAGS: [...]
LAGGING-ONLY FLAGS: [...]
EVIDENCE GAPS: [...]

Worked example

Input: North Star = Monthly Active Users. Multiplicative. Driver: new signups × retention rate.

Expected output (excerpt):

DRIVER 1: New signups [B2]
  Leading indicators: | Trial starts | Definition: unique accounts completing signup | leading |
DOUBLE-COUNTING FLAGS: none

Quality checks before delivering

• Profiles loaded or [PROVISIONAL] tagged
• North Star definition locked before decomposition
• 3–5 MECE drivers with explicit math/causal link
• Double-counting checked
• Category codes from profile
• No invented baselines

Propose profile update

When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), propose a profile update: show the exact diff against ~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/performance/CLAUDE.md (org-wide facts go to org-profile.md), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only /performance:practice-setup auto-applies a full profile write.

Outputs

Follows plugin CLAUDE.md § Outputs. Next: tracker-builder, performance-narrative, or fill INPUT NEEDED with analytics team.