Deal Analyzer

Deal Analyzer — Full Property Analysis Pipeline

Orchestrate a complete investment property analysis from raw photos and an address through to ARV, rehab cost, deal math, and offer strategy. This skill ties together the real-estate-comping skill (for valuation) and the rehab-estimator skill (for renovation costs) into one streamlined pipeline.

The user should walk away with a clear picture: what's it worth, what does it cost to fix, what should I offer, and which exit strategy makes more money.

Pipeline Overview

INTAKE → PHOTO ANALYSIS → COMP ANALYSIS → REHAB ESTIMATE → DEAL MATH → OFFER & EXIT STRATEGY → DELIVERABLES

Each phase feeds into the next. Data flows forward — comp findings inform rehab scope, rehab costs feed deal math, and deal math drives the offer.

Phase 1: Intake

Collect from the user:

Required:

• Property address (full: street, city, state, zip)
• Property photos OR condition description (photos strongly preferred)

Helpful (ask if not provided):

• Square footage / bed / bath / year built (can be researched if address is given)
• Number of units (default: 1)
• Occupied? (Y/N) — affects hold time and eviction/vacancy considerations
• Purchase price or contract price (needed for deal math)
• Current "As Is" Value (if known — useful for wholesaling spread analysis)
• Known issues (roof, foundation, HVAC, etc.)
• Financing structure (supports multiple loans — see Phase 5 for details):
  • First Mortgage / primary lender terms (amount or LTV, rate, points)
  • Second Mortgage / Gap Fund / Private Money (if applicable)
  • Miscellaneous financing or liens (if applicable)
  • If not provided, defaults to 100% LTV hard money on purchase + rehab as a single first mortgage
• Exit strategy preference (or analyze both flip and wholetail)
• Evaluator name (for report attribution)
• Property description (e.g., "Off Market Lead", "MLS Listing", "Driving for Dollars")

If the user only provides an address: Use web search and browser tools to look up the property on Zillow, Redfin, or county records to gather:

• GLA, bed/bath, year built, lot size
• Any available listing photos (for condition assessment)
• Tax records for annual property tax amount

If the user provides photos: These are typically walkthrough photos the user took at the property. Analyze them directly — they are the primary source of truth for condition assessment. Do NOT search for other photos of the same property unless the user's photos are incomplete.

Phase 2: Photo & Condition Analysis

Read and follow the photo analysis methodology from the rehab-estimator skill (Step 2).

Walk through every photo systematically using the checklist below. Rate each item Good / Fair / Poor / Missing.

Photo Analysis Checklist

Exterior:

• Roof condition (shingle age, sagging, missing sections, visible damage)
• Siding/brick (cracks, rot, peeling paint, missing sections)
• Gutters and downspouts (present, condition, proper drainage)
• Landscaping (overgrown, dead, drainage grading toward/away from foundation)
• Driveway and walkways (cracks, heaving, material type)
• Windows from outside (seal integrity, frame condition, fogging between panes)

Interior — Flooring:

• Type per room (hardwood, carpet, LVP, tile, vinyl sheet)
• Condition per room (scratches, stains, warping, loose tiles, carpet wear)

Interior — Walls and Ceilings:

• Paint condition (peeling, nail pops, patching needed)
• Drywall damage (holes, cracks, water stains)
• Ceiling texture (popcorn, smooth, knockdown) — popcorn removal adds cost
• Ceiling stains (active leak indicator — check above for roof/plumbing issues)

Kitchen:

• Cabinets — style (flat panel, shaker, raised panel) + condition (delamination, soft-close hardware)
• Countertops — material (laminate, granite, quartz, butcher block) + condition
• Appliances — brand, approximate age, working condition (stainless vs white/black)
• Backsplash — present/absent, material, condition
• Layout — functional or needs reconfiguration (adds significant cost)

Bathrooms:

• Vanity — style, condition, number of sinks
• Tile/surround — material (ceramic, porcelain, fiberglass insert), grout condition, caulking
• Fixtures — faucets, showerhead (brass, chrome, brushed nickel), age/style
• Toilet — condition, style (round vs elongated), flush mechanism

Systems (photograph if accessible):

• HVAC unit — brand, model tag (for age), visible condition, type (split system, heat pump, window units)
• Water heater — tank vs tankless, age from label, capacity (40/50 gal)
• Electrical panel — breaker type (modern breakers vs fuses), amperage (100A/200A), labeling

Red Flags (immediate cost escalators):

• Foundation cracks (horizontal = structural concern, vertical/diagonal = settling, stair-step in brick = serious)
• Water stains on walls/ceilings (active moisture problem — trace to source)
• Visible mold (black mold remediation $2K-$10K+)
• Structural sag in roofline or floors (beam/joist damage)
• Knob-and-tube or aluminum wiring (full rewire required, $8K-$15K)
• Cast iron or galvanized plumbing (full repipe likely needed)
• Termite damage or mud tubes (structural inspection required)

Build a condition summary that feeds both the comp analysis (to categorize the subject property's current condition) and the rehab estimate (to scope the work needed).

Important: Assess what you can actually see. Flag anything you can't assess from photos (e.g., "roof not visible — needs inspection"). Widen contingency for unknowns — each unverified system adds 2-3% to the contingency budget.

Phase 3: Comp Analysis (ARV Determination)

Invoke the real-estate-comping skill methodology.

1. Determine if the property is in a disclosure or non-disclosure state
2. Read the appropriate comping framework reference:
   • Disclosure states → real-estate-comping/references/disclosure-prompt.md
   • Non-disclosure states → real-estate-comping/references/non-disclosure-prompt.md
3. Execute the full 9-step comp analysis
4. Generate the comp Excel workbook using the comping skill's script

Key outputs to carry forward:

• ARV (final number)
• Bucket A median PPSF (unrenovated)
• Bucket B median PPSF (renovated)
• Renovation premium percentage
• What finishes the renovated comps had (critical for rehab scoping)
• Median DOM from Bucket B comps (for hold time calculation)
• Market phase assessment
• ARV confidence level (see criteria below)

ARV Confidence Level Assignment

Every ARV figure MUST include a confidence level. Assign based on these criteria:

Downgrade triggers (override the table above):

• Any comp crosses a major road, highway, or railroad = drop one level
• Subject has unique features with no comp match (e.g., only brick ranch in a frame neighborhood) = drop one level
• Active market shift (rising inventory, DOM increasing month over month) = drop one level

Report confidence with the ARV in every output: ARV: $XXX,XXX (confidence: HIGH/MODERATE/LOW — [reason])

Comp photo comparison: When analyzing renovated comps (Bucket B), pull listing photos from Zillow/Redfin using browser tools to see what finish level the market is rewarding. This directly informs what the rehab scope should target — match the comps, don't exceed them.

Phase 4: Rehab Estimate

Invoke the rehab-estimator skill methodology, feeding in the comp findings.

1. Read calibration data: rehab-estimator/references/real-deal-calibration.md
2. Read line item categories: rehab-estimator/references/rehab-categories.md
3. Read finish tiers: rehab-estimator/references/finish-tiers.md
4. Read wholetail scope differences: rehab-estimator/references/wholetail-vs-rehab.md
5. Read local pricing guide: rehab-estimator/references/local-pricing-guide.md
6. For Knoxville / Knox County / Blount County properties, read the locked master material list: rehab-estimator/data/master_material_list_37914.csv. Materials price from that list for the vast majority of items (Tier 1 = budget, Tier 2 = standard, Tier 3 = upgrade column); go off-list only for an item the list does not carry, and flag it. Never apply the regional multiplier to these prices: they are already local to zip 37914. Labor and non-Knox markets stay on the cheat-sheet model.

Build TWO parallel scopes:

• Full Rehab — match Bucket B comp finishes (Investor-Flip Grade)
• Wholetail — clean, functional, minimal spend (Builder to Mid Grade)

Critical integration point: The finish level MUST match what the renovated comps had. If Bucket B comps had LVP flooring and white shaker cabinets, that's what the full rehab scope targets. If comps had granite, budget granite. Over-improvement kills ROI.

Apply local pricing adjustments for the property's specific market.

Run the $/SF sanity check ($25-35 standard flip, $40-55 heavy, $60-80 gut-only).

Generate the rehab Excel workbook using the rehab-estimator script.

Phase 5: Deal Math

Calculate the full deal cost picture. This is where comping meets rehab.

For Full Rehab Exit:

Net Profit = ARV - Purchase Price - Rehab Cost - Financing - Holding - Buying Costs - Selling Costs

For Wholetail Exit:

Wholetail Sale Price = Bucket A PPSF × GLA + 10-15% light premium
Net Profit = Wholetail Sale Price - Purchase Price - Wholetail Cost - Financing - Holding - Buying Costs - Selling Costs

Hold Time (Dynamic):

Total Hold = Rehab Duration + Marketing Period + Closing Period

If Bucket B median DOM is unavailable: Use 45 days as a conservative default for a balanced market, 21 days for a hot market, 75 days for a slow market.

Hold time drives financing cost. Every extra month adds one more interest-only payment. This is why wholetail (shorter rehab + faster sale) often wins on profit-per-month even with lower absolute profit.

Projected Sale Date: Calculate from today's date + Total Hold Time. Present as "Assumes Sale is on or before [date]."

Multi-Loan Financing Structure

The deal analyzer supports flexible financing with up to three loan positions. This allows modeling real-world scenarios like hard money + gap funding, conventional + private money, or any combination.

Financing Structure Types

The deal analyzer supports these common REI financing structures. Use the appropriate type based on what the user describes, or default to Hard Money when no terms are provided:

First Mortgage (Primary Loan): The main acquisition loan. If the user doesn't specify terms, default to hard money:

• Loan amount = Purchase Price + Rehab Cost (100% LTV)
• Interest rate = 12% annual (interest-only)
• Points = 2 points (2% of loan amount)

Second Mortgage / Gap Fund: Common for investors who use gap funding, private money, or a second lien to cover the difference between the first mortgage and total project cost. Typical use cases:

• First mortgage covers 80% of purchase, gap fund covers 20% of purchase + all rehab costs
• Hard money covers purchase, private money covers rehab
• Any other split the user specifies

If the user provides gap fund terms:

• Loan amount = user-specified OR auto-calculate as (Purchase × gap percentage) + Rehab costs
• Interest rate = user-specified (often 0-15% depending on source)
• Points = user-specified

Miscellaneous Financing: Any additional financing (third lien, repair line of credit, etc.). Only include if user specifies.

Financing Calculation (per loan):

Monthly Interest = Loan Amount × (Annual Rate / 12)
Points Cost = Loan Amount × Points %
Total Financing Cost = (Monthly Interest × Hold Time) + Points Cost

Total All Financing = Sum of all loan costs (First + Second + Misc)

Default Cost Assumptions

When the user does not provide specific values, use these defaults (aligned with src/deal_analyzer.py):

Always state which defaults were used so the investor can override with their actual numbers.

Regional Defaults Warning: The values above are calibrated for Tennessee / East Tennessee markets. If analyzing properties outside Tennessee, adjust these values:

• Transfer tax: varies by state (0.1% to 2.2%). Top 10 states: FL 0.70%, CA 0.11%, TX 0%, OH 0.10%, GA 0.10%, NC 0.20%, PA 1.0%, NY 0.40%, IL 0.10%, NJ 1.0%
• Property tax: always pull from county records — rates range from 0.3% (HI) to 2.2% (NJ) of assessed value
• Insurance: $100-150/mo (low-cost markets), $150-225/mo (mid markets), $250-400/mo (high-cost/coastal/flood zone)
• Utilities: $150-200/mo (South/Midwest), $200-300/mo (Northeast/West Coast)
• Holding costs overall: add 30-50% in high-cost markets (CA, NY, MA, WA) vs Tennessee baseline

Capital Analysis

These metrics show how much actual cash the investor needs and what return they're getting on their own money:

Down Payment Required at Closing = Purchase Price + Buying Costs - First Mortgage Amount
Committed Capital = Down Payment + (Rehab Cost - amounts covered by loans) + Holding Costs during rehab

Cash on Cash Return:

Cash on Cash Return = Net Profit / Committed Capital
Annualized Cash on Cash = Cash on Cash Return × (12 / Hold Time in months)

This is often more useful than total ROI because it measures return on the investor's actual out-of-pocket capital, not total project cost.

Additional ROI Metrics

Present all of these in the deal summary:

Validate the Spread:

Market Premium = (Bucket B PPSF - Bucket A PPSF) × GLA
Rehab budget should be 40-70% of Market Premium
> 70% = thin margin warning
< 40% = strong margin

Phase 6: Offer & Exit Strategy

Present the decision framework:

Maximum Allowable Offer (MAO)

MAO (75% Rule) = ARV × 75% - Full Rehab Cost
MAO (70% Rule) = ARV × 70% - Full Rehab Cost

The 75% Rule is the standard for experienced investors with established contractor relationships and accurate rehab estimates. The 70% Rule provides extra margin for newer investors, uncertain rehab scopes, or markets with longer DOM. Always present both:

The MAO is a ceiling, not a target. Offer below MAO whenever possible — the profit is made at purchase.

Exit Strategy Comparison Table

Profit per Month is often the most useful comparison — a wholetail that nets $15K in 6 weeks can beat a flip that nets $35K in 5 months when measured by capital velocity.

Cash on Cash Return matters when the investor is using leverage — it shows return on their actual skin in the game, not total project cost.

Exit Strategy Tiebreaker Rule

When both full rehab and wholetail show positive returns, use Profit Per Month as the primary tiebreaker:

Profit Per Month = Net Profit / Total Hold Time in Months

Decision logic:

1. If wholetail Profit/Month > full rehab Profit/Month --> Recommend wholetail (faster capital velocity wins)
2. If full rehab Profit/Month > wholetail Profit/Month AND full rehab absolute profit exceeds wholetail by > $20,000 --> Recommend full rehab (the extra profit justifies the longer hold)
3. If full rehab Profit/Month > wholetail Profit/Month but absolute profit difference is < $20,000 --> Recommend wholetail (not enough extra profit to justify the added time, risk, and capital)

Always present both options with the comparison. The tiebreaker is a recommendation, not a directive — the investor makes the final call based on their capital availability, risk tolerance, and pipeline.

Recommendation

Based on the numbers and the tiebreaker rule above, recommend the stronger exit strategy with reasoning. Consider:

• Profit Per Month (primary tiebreaker — capital velocity)
• Absolute profit difference (must exceed $20K to justify longer hold)
• Capital required (risk exposure) — compare Committed Capital
• Cash on Cash Return (especially when using leverage)
• Market conditions (hot market favors wholetail speed, slow market may need full rehab to compete)
• ARV confidence level (LOW confidence = favor wholetail to reduce downside exposure)
• Investor's stated preference (if any)

Phase 7: Deliverables

Generate all outputs using the existing skill scripts:

From Comping:

1. Comp Excel Workbook — real-estate-comping/scripts/generate_excel_report.py

From Rehab:

2. Rehab Excel Workbook — rehab-estimator/scripts/generate_rehab_excel.py

Presentation Order:

1. Show the in-context summary (condition highlights → ARV → rehab costs → deal math → offer strategy)
2. Link the comp Excel workbook
3. Link the rehab Excel workbook

In-Context Summary Format:

## Deal Analysis: [Address]
**Evaluator:** [Name] | **Date:** [Date] | **Units:** [#] | **Occupied:** [Y/N]

### Property Condition
[3-5 key findings from photo analysis]

### Valuation (ARV)
- ARV: $XXX,XXX (confidence: High/Moderate/Low)
- As-Is Value: $XXX,XXX (if available)
- Unrenovated PPSF: $XXX | Renovated PPSF: $XXX
- Market Premium: XX%
- Market Phase: [Seller's/Balanced/Buyer's]

### Rehab Estimates
| | Full Rehab | Wholetail |
|---|---|---|
| Estimate | $XX,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| $/SF | $XX | $XX |

### Financing Summary
| Loan | Amount | Rate | Points | Monthly Payment |
|------|--------|------|--------|-----------------|
| First Mortgage | $XXX,XXX | XX% | X% | $X,XXX |
| Second / Gap Fund | $XX,XXX | XX% | X% | $XXX |
| Total Financing Cost | — | — | — | $X,XXX |

### Full Deal Analysis
| | Full Rehab | Wholetail |
|---|---|---|
| Sale Price | $XXX,XXX | $XXX,XXX |
| Purchase | $XXX,XXX | $XXX,XXX |
| Rehab | $XX,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| Financing | $X,XXX | $X,XXX |
| Holding (X mo) | $X,XXX | $X,XXX |
| Buying Costs | $X,XXX | $X,XXX |
| Selling Costs | $XX,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| **Net Profit** | **$XX,XXX** | **$XX,XXX** |
| **Total Costs ROI** | **XX%** | **XX%** |
| **Cash on Cash** | **XX%** | **XX%** |
| **Annualized CoCR** | **XX%** | **XX%** |
| **Profit/Month** | **$X,XXX** | **$X,XXX** |

### Capital Requirements
| | Full Rehab | Wholetail |
|---|---|---|
| Down Payment at Closing | $XX,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| Committed Capital | $XX,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| Purchase + Rehab $/SF | $XXX | $XXX |

### Offer Strategy
- MAO (75% Rule): $XXX,XXX
- MAO (70% Rule): $XXX,XXX
- Assumes Sale on or before: [Date]
- Recommended Exit: [Flip/Wholetail] — [1-2 sentence reasoning]

### Caveats
[Unknowns, inspection items needed, market risks]

### Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and estimation purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, or legal advice. Actual costs, values, and returns may differ materially. Verify all assumptions with local professionals before making investment decisions.

The disclaimer section is MANDATORY in every deal analysis output. Do not omit it.

Key Principles

1. Photos are ground truth — User-provided walkthrough photos are the primary evidence. Don't assume conditions the photos don't show.

2. Comps drive finish level — The rehab scope targets whatever the renovated comps had. Over-improving beyond comps is the #1 margin killer.

3. All-in costs, always — Never present profit as just ARV minus purchase minus rehab. Financing, holding, and transaction costs are real money.

4. Both exits, every time — Always present flip AND wholetail numbers unless the user explicitly only wants one. The best exit isn't always obvious.

5. Profit per month > absolute profit — Capital velocity matters. A faster, smaller profit can beat a bigger, slower one.

6. Conservative by default — Target low-to-mid pricing on rehab (35th percentile). Use 75% MAO rule. Don't inflate ARV with optimistic comp selection.

7. Flag what you can't see — Unknown roof, unseen crawlspace, no electrical panel photo = wider contingency and explicit callouts.

8. Flexible financing — Support real-world loan structures (multiple liens, gap funding, private money). Don't assume everyone uses a single hard money loan. Default to hard money only when no financing terms are provided.

9. Show the investor's real exposure — Committed Capital and Cash on Cash Return matter more than total project ROI when the investor is using leverage. Always present both.

10. Universal applicability — The deal analyzer works for any market, any financing structure, and any exit strategy. Don't hardcode assumptions that only apply to one geography or one lender type.

Reference Files

The following reference files from the comping and rehab skills contain detailed methodology. Read them at the appropriate phase:

Comping references (Phase 3):

• real-estate-comping/references/disclosure-prompt.md — Full 9-step disclosure state framework
• real-estate-comping/references/non-disclosure-prompt.md — Triangulation method for TX, etc.
• real-estate-comping/references/adjustment-cheatsheet.md — Feature adjustment values

Rehab references (Phase 4):

• rehab-estimator/references/real-deal-calibration.md — Verified contractor pricing (read FIRST)
• rehab-estimator/references/rehab-categories.md — Complete line-item pricing
• rehab-estimator/references/finish-tiers.md — Material quality levels
• rehab-estimator/references/wholetail-vs-rehab.md — Scope differences between exits
• rehab-estimator/references/local-pricing-guide.md — Market-specific pricing adjustments
• rehab-estimator/data/master_material_list_37914.csv: LOCKED Knox County Home Depot material prices (Budget/Standard/Upgrade); the material source on Knox-market deals, never multiplied by the regional factor

Staffing the rehab

The analysis prices the work; it does not staff it. When the user asks who should do the rehab, or needs a contractor bench for the market, route to the vendor-directory-builder skill (vetted, community-sourced contractor directory) and then contractor-call-sheet (call sheet + outreach drafts) rather than guessing at providers.