deciqAI RIA — Client Plan Margin of Safety
Industry front door for margin-of-safety. Adds domain triggers, example, packs only. Parent Process unchanged. Not investment advice.
Activate when: building a retirement/decumulation plan; setting cash buffers/withdrawal rates; stress-testing a plan; client near retirement; "will they be okay if markets drop early?" Do NOT activate when: pure accumulation with long horizon and no near-term draws.
Why this variant
The parent margin-of-safety builds a buffer so estimation error doesn't cause ruin. A retiree's plan lives or dies on sequence-of-returns risk; the margin of safety is the cash/bond buffer and withdrawal haircut that lets the plan survive an early bad market.
Domain inputs → parent's Process
- Size a spending buffer (e.g. 1–3 yrs of withdrawals in cash/short bonds) so early drawdowns aren't sold at the bottom.
- Haircut the withdrawal rate below the "optimistic" number; plan to the conservative case.
- Stress-test against an early-crash sequence, not just average returns.
Worked example
$1.5M portfolio, planned 5% draw, retiring into a rich market. → Margin of safety: hold 2 years' spending in cash, set draw at 4% with a guardrail to cut in down years. A crash in year 1 is met from the buffer, not by liquidating equities low. Plan survives the sequence.
Packs
- Solo: buffer + guardrail rule embedded in every decumulation plan.
- Advisory: dynamic-spending (guardrails) policy documented in the IPS.
Red flags
- Planning to average returns, ignoring sequence risk.
- No cash buffer; forced equity sales in downturns.
- Withdrawal rate set at the optimistic edge.
Verification
- Spending buffer sized to horizon of concern
- Withdrawal haircut applied vs optimistic case
- Early-crash sequence stress-tested
- Guardrail/dynamic-spending rule documented
Part of deciqAI Knowledge Skills. Core method: margin-of-safety.
Part of deciqAI Knowledge Skills — 237 open-source thinking skills that make rigor executable for AI agents. The same skills power every deciqAI agent, which runs them autonomously to operate your company. See it run → https://www.deciqai.com/s/ria-client-margin-of-safety · Built by deciqAI · github.com/deciqAI · Contributions welcome.
Agents: latest version & machine-readable metadata → https://www.deciqai.com/s/ria-client-margin-of-safety.json