Lease-Up First Period

Lease-Up First Period

Workflow purpose

Give the leasing_director, regional_ops_director, asset_mgmt_director, and investments_lead a single monthly view of a new-construction or gut-renovation asset during its first 12-18 months post-delivery — so that drift from the underwriting lease-up curve, concession escalation beyond the comp set, model-unit or marketing- channel underperformance, and lender-reporting or equity-call timing risk surface in the same month they occur.

This pack is ramp-aware. It is not the steady-state monthly review. It preserves lease-up-specific metrics (lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting, concession_depth_vs_market, noi_ramp_vs_underwriting, first_renewal_window_retention_readiness) and explicitly annotates when a property crosses the stabilization threshold and the ownership-side review cadence hands off to workflows/monthly_property_operating_review.

The workflow is read-heavy across two primary source systems — AppFolio for the leasing funnel and lease execution, Excel for rent comp + concession benchmark — with secondary pulls from Intacct (NOI actuals) and Procore (CCO timestamp) where the property came from ground-up development. Cross-system posture is declared in _core/stack_wave4/source_of_truth_matrix.md.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "monthly lease-up review", "lease-up scorecard", "lease-up pace", "how's the new asset performing", "South Fork lease-up tracker", "NOI ramp check".
• Implicit: property lifecycle enters lease_up (from TCO or CCO); property is within its overlay-defined lease-up window (typically 6-18 months post-delivery); stabilization_pace_vs_plan breaches overlay band; concession_rate crosses lease-up overlay ceiling; lender-reporting calendar event (quarterly or monthly per loan overlay) approaches; fund equity-call milestone approaches; first-renewal window (T60 days) opens for any lease-up-executed lease.
• Recurring: monthly per property while the property is in lifecycle = lease_up; escalates to weekly cadence if lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting falls more than overlay tolerance behind plan for two consecutive weeks.

Inputs (required / optional)

Outputs

Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage (must be lease_up), management_mode, market, property_id, org_id. Delivery date (TCO and, where distinct, CCO) must be known — the workflow computes all ramp metrics against weeks-post-delivery. Loan_id is required if the property carries construction-to-permanent or permanent debt with a lease-up-stage covenant or reporting obligation. Fund_id is required if the pack reports equity-call posture.

Process

Step 1. Delivery anchor and ramp-week computation

Establish the anchor date. Pull property.acquired_date where applicable; for ground-up projects pull CCO (certificate_of_occupancy_issued) from the Procore side per the handoff posture declared in source_of_truth_matrix.md (Procore primary for construction_project and schedule_milestone). If CCO differs from TCO, use CCO as the first-lease anchor per loan overlay convention and annotate the gap via cco_to_first_lease_days (proposed). Every pace metric in subsequent steps is computed as "week N post-delivery" so the underwriting curve and actuals align at the same x-axis.

Step 2. Lease-up pace vs underwriting

Compute:

• leased_occupancy at property grain per appfolio_pms/normalized_contract.yaml semantics (lease status in {executed, in_effect} with preleased window per overlay).
• preleased_occupancy for future-start executed leases within the preleased_window (lease_up overlay typically widens to 60 days — cite the overlay).
• lease_up_pace_post_delivery (canonical): weekly rolling units-leased count.
• stabilization_pace_vs_plan (canonical): actual leased occupancy minus budget leased occupancy at the same ramp-week.
• lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed): ratio of actual-to-date to underwriting-to-date at current ramp-week. The underwriting curve is frozen at property delivery; any change in the underwriting curve is logged separately via fund overlay and this pack annotates the change.

Flag any ramp-week where lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) is more than the overlay tolerance (cite reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml::lease_up_pace_band) behind plan. Two consecutive flags escalate cadence to weekly per trigger policy.

Step 3. Concession posture vs market

Compute:

• concession_rate (canonical) on new leases executed in the window.
• concession_depth_vs_market (proposed): equivalent months off on the property's new-lease average versus concession_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv row matched on segment + form_factor + lifecycle_stage=lease_up. Surface both the absolute gap and the pct_comps_offering delta.

Flag:

• Any lease where concession > lease-up overlay ceiling — route to overlay concession governance; open or verify approval_request row 13 for policy-exceeding concessions during lease-up.
• Any period where concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) exceeds overlay tolerance (cite reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml::concession_depth_band). This is the concession-vs-rent tradeoff sentinel — escalate to leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director.

Every concession comparison cites the Excel comp source as_of_date and status (sample / starter / live).

Step 4. Application approval rate + fair-housing guardrail

Compute:

• approval_rate (canonical) over the window. Lease-up overlay applies its own target band — the lease-up population is often demographically distinct from stabilized, so the pack uses the lease-up-scoped band.
• Compare to T90-day trailing baseline. Statistically meaningful disparity triggers a fair-housing flag — route to workflows/lead_to_lease_funnel_review's fair-housing branch (row 3) rather than asserting here.
• Confirm every approval_outcome cites a policy_ref. Missing policy_ref is a screening-drift finding; annotate but do not propose a screening change.

Fair-housing scanning is delegated to workflows/lead_to_lease_funnel_review; this pack references the findings, not authors them.

Step 5. Traffic source mix and broker-assist posture

Group leads, tours, applications, and executed leases by Lead.source_channel. Compute per-source:

• Lead volume share.
• Tour conversion.
• Application conversion.
• Executed-lease share.
• Cost-per-lease (if marketing spend is available from the marketing_channel_mix reference plus property-level spend overlay; else annotate gap and skip).

Separately compute broker_assist_rate (proposed): share of executed leases whose source_channel is in the broker-assist identifier list (optional overlay input). A high broker-assist rate during lease-up is not a flag by itself — compare to marketing_channel_mix__middle_market.csv benchmark to classify as within / above / below expected for segment + market.

If there is a marketing rentup gap (i.e., total lead volume + conversion pace cannot produce enough executed leases to track plan), route to leasing_manager + marketing_lead.

Step 6. Model unit performance

If ground-up with a model unit program:

• Pull model-unit readiness status (construction handoff artifact).
• Compute model_unit_tour_conversion (proposed): tour_conversion filtered to tours whose record indicates a model-unit walk.
• Compare to overall tour_conversion and to funnel_conversion_benchmarks__middle_market.csv.

If the model unit is not ready (finishes incomplete, staging not complete, utilities not live), flag as model_unit_readiness_gap — route to construction_manager + leasing_manager. Do not propose a pricing change to compensate; surface the gap as a non-pricing remediation.

Step 7. First-renewal window retention readiness

For any executed lease with end_date within T60 days of the run date:

• Compute first_renewal_window_retention_readiness (proposed): count by state (renewal_offer_issued, engaged, signed, declined, notice_given, unresponsive).
• Compare to renewal_uplift_bands__middle_market.csv where available.
• Annotate any lease that was executed with a lease-up concession — the first renewal is structurally different from a stabilized renewal because the prior rent may have been concession-burdened. Cite the overlay's first-renewal rent policy.

This is read-only for the steady-state renewal workflow: it surfaces the queue but does not draft offers. Offer drafting lives in workflows/renewal_retention.

Step 8. NOI ramp posture

Pull monthly NOI from Intacct (per sage_intacct_gl adapter; Intacct is primary for actual_line). Compute:

• noi (canonical) at property grain, month-post-delivery.
• noi_margin (canonical).
• noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed): ratio of actual NOI to underwriting NOI at same month-post-delivery. Underwriting NOI ramp is frozen at delivery.
• revenue_variance_to_budget and expense_variance_to_budget (canonical) against the lease-up-stage budget.

Flag any month where noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed) is more than overlay tolerance behind underwriting. Two consecutive flags escalate to investments_lead.

Step 9. Rent comp and market-to-lease gap

• rent_growth_new_lease (canonical) over the window.
• market_to_lease_gap (canonical) using market_rents__{market}_mf.csv.

Surface the gap explicitly so the Excel comp as_of_date and status appear in the confidence banner — market-to-lease-gap claims are among the most stale-data-sensitive in the pack.

Step 10. Lender-reporting compliance

For each loan with a lease-up-stage reporting obligation (per loan overlay reporting calendar):

• Compute lender_reporting_compliance_status (proposed) per required submission in the period: on_time, late, missed, waived.
• Flag any missed or waived without documented waiver — route to asset_mgmt_director + reporting_finance_ops_lead. If a response requires a lender submission, open approval_request row 14 (lender final submission gate).

This pack does not author lender submissions; it flags compliance posture. Submission composition is in workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation when lender output is needed.

Step 11. Equity-call schedule (unfunded reserves)

If the fund overlay declares equity-call schedule posture applies:

• Pull forward 90-day equity-call plan from the fund overlay.
• Compute equity_call_schedule_coverage (proposed) per scheduled call: planned_amount, committed_amount, deployed_amount, due_date.
• Flag any call whose due_date is within 30 days and whose committed_amount is below planned_amount by more than overlay tolerance.

This pack does not initiate calls; it reports posture. Call initiation lives in fund-level capital overlay.

Step 12. Stabilization crossover check

Compute whether the property has crossed the stabilization threshold (per overlay, typically a sustained leased_occupancy above overlay-defined band for N consecutive months). If crossed:

• Annotate the stabilization crossover date.
• Flag the handoff from lease_up_first_period to workflows/monthly_property_operating_review as the primary monthly cadence going forward.
• The first renewal window may still straddle the crossover; retention readiness continues to be tracked here until the first-cohort renewals conclude.

The handoff is ownership-side signaled, not auto-executed. This pack surfaces the signal; workflows/monthly_asset_management_review confirms and adjusts cadence.

Step 13. Top-3 watch items

Narrative synthesis. Name the three most consequential lease-up watch items this month. Each watch item cites: property, metric slug, tolerance band reference, owning workflow, proposed next action.

Step 14. Confidence banner

Every reference surfaced with as_of_date and status. Any sample-tagged reference is explicit. Cross-system posture summary: AppFolio primary for leasing funnel + lease execution; Excel primary for rent comp + concession benchmark; Intacct primary for NOI actuals post-close; Procore primary for CCO timestamp where applicable.

Decision points and branches

• lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) behind band two weeks running: cadence escalates to weekly; hand off to leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director. Do not propose pricing change here — route to workflows/market_rent_refresh for re-pricing analysis.
• concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) above tolerance: concession-vs-rent tradeoff sentinel — escalate to leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director. Do not propose a policy exception here — overlay governs.
• model_unit_readiness_gap: route to construction_manager + leasing_manager.
• First-renewal window risk spike (notice-given share above baseline): route to workflows/renewal_retention.
• noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed) behind band two months running: escalate to investments_lead.
• Lender-reporting miss: route to asset_mgmt_director + reporting_finance_ops_lead; lender response composition through workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation.
• Equity-call timing drift: route to cfo_finance_leader + portfolio_manager.
• Stabilization crossover signaled: annotate handoff to workflows/monthly_property_operating_review.

Metrics used

See frontmatter. Canonical metrics are inherited from the property-operations and asset-management families. The proposed metrics (lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting, concession_depth_vs_market, broker_assist_rate, model_unit_tour_conversion, first_renewal_window_retention_readiness, noi_ramp_vs_underwriting, lender_reporting_compliance_status, equity_call_schedule_coverage, cco_to_first_lease_days) are lease-up-specific aggregations; formal promotion to _core/metrics.md happens via a canonical change-control cycle. cco_to_first_lease_days is shared with workflows/development_pipeline_tracking.

Reference files used

• reference/connectors/_core/stack_wave4/source_of_truth_matrix.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/appfolio_pms/normalized_contract.yaml
• reference/connectors/adapters/appfolio_pms/reconciliation_rules.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/appfolio_pms/runbooks/appfolio_common_issues.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/excel_market_surveys/normalized_contract.yaml
• reference/connectors/adapters/excel_market_surveys/reconciliation_rules.md
• reference/connectors/master_data/property_master_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/connectors/master_data/lease_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/connectors/master_data/resident_account_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/connectors/master_data/market_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/normalized/market_rents__{market}_mf.csv
• reference/normalized/concession_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv
• reference/normalized/occupancy_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv
• reference/normalized/marketing_channel_mix__middle_market.csv
• reference/normalized/schemas/reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml
• reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv
• reference/derived/funnel_conversion_benchmarks__middle_market.csv
• reference/derived/role_kpi_targets.csv

Escalation points

• Lease-up pace behind plan: leasing_manager -> regional_ops_director -> asset_mgmt_director -> investments_lead. Route pricing question to workflows/market_rent_refresh.
• Concession above policy during lease-up (row 13): leasing_manager -> asset_manager.
• Concession depth vs market beyond tolerance (concession-vs-rent tradeoff sentinel): leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director.
• Model unit readiness gap: construction_manager + leasing_manager -> asset_manager.
• Marketing rentup gap: leasing_manager + marketing_lead -> regional_ops_director.
• NOI ramp behind underwriting two months running: asset_mgmt_director -> investments_lead.
• Lender reporting compliance miss: asset_mgmt_director + reporting_finance_ops_lead; row 14 for any lender submission.
• Equity-call timing drift: cfo_finance_leader + portfolio_manager -> investments_lead.
• First-renewal window risk spike: leasing_manager -> regional_ops_director; route offer drafting to workflows/renewal_retention.
• Fair-housing flag (echoed from workflows/lead_to_lease_funnel_review): row 3.

Required approvals

None for the tracker itself (informational / recommendation severity). Downstream owning workflows carry their own gates:

• Policy-exceeding concession during lease-up (row 13).
• Fair-housing-flagged response (row 3).
• Lender final submission (row 14), composed in workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation.
• Pricing / rent-schedule change via workflows/market_rent_refresh overlay gate.
• Equity-call initiation via fund capital overlay.

Failure modes

1. Conflating TCO with CCO for the ramp anchor. Fix: anchor is CCO when both exist and differ; annotate cco_to_first_lease_days (proposed) when CCO is the anchor.
2. Comparing actual lease-up pace against a changing underwriting curve. Fix: the underwriting curve is frozen at delivery; any change is logged via fund overlay and annotated explicitly.
3. Treating concession_rate and concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) as equivalent. Fix: concession_rate is an internal ledger metric; concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) is the comp-set-normalized tradeoff sentinel. Both are required.
4. Drafting renewal offers from within this pack. Fix: offer drafting is delegated to workflows/renewal_retention; this pack surfaces the queue only.
5. Authoring lender submissions. Fix: lender output is composed in workflows/executive_operating_summary_generation and gated at row 14.
6. Initiating or adjusting equity calls. Fix: call initiation is fund overlay; this pack reports posture only.
7. Proposing concession-policy exceptions. Fix: overlay concession governance; row 13.
8. Proposing screening-policy changes to close an approval_rate disparity. Fix: screening policy is overlay; fair-housing findings route through workflows/lead_to_lease_funnel_review at row 3.
9. Reporting ramp pace without a frozen underwriting curve. Fix: if underwriting curve is missing, refuse to compute lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) and noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed); surface the gap.
10. Sample overlay treated as authoritative rent comp or concession benchmark. Fix: confidence banner surfaces sample-tag explicitly; Excel-sourced references are the most stale-data-sensitive inputs in this pack.

Edge cases

• Model unit not ready at first-lease week. Anchor (CCO) may have been achieved but the model unit finishes or staging are incomplete. Flag as model_unit_readiness_gap — route to construction_manager + leasing_manager. Do not propose a pricing offset. Traffic is expected to underperform until the model is usable; ramp-pace variance in this window is flagged with an explicit cause attribution so it does not trigger spurious lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) alarms without context.
• Marketing rentup gap. Marketing launch is delayed or underfunded vs the underwriting assumption; total lead volume cannot produce the required executed leases at the planned conversion. Flag as marketing_rentup_gap — route to leasing_manager + marketing_lead; escalate to regional_ops_director if unresolved after one period. Do not infer the gap from pace alone; require cross-reference against the marketing_channel_mix benchmark + available spend data, else annotate as an attribution gap.
• Concession-vs-rent tradeoff above tolerance. Property is achieving headline leased_occupancy in-line with underwriting but at concession depth exceeding the comp-set benchmark — i.e., velocity is bought with concession dollars. Flag as concession_rent_tradeoff_above_tolerance — escalate to leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director -> investments_lead. The forward impact is on noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed) and on first-renewal retention; annotate the linkage in the narrative.
• First-renewal window straddles stabilization crossover. Property crosses stabilization before the first-cohort leases renew. Continue tracking first-renewal retention here until the first-cohort renewals conclude, then hand off entirely.
• Property delivered in phases. Multi-building delivery with staggered CCO dates. Anchor is earliest CCO for aggregate pace; per-building anchors preserved in the narrative for per-building variance. Overlay governs whether the underwriting curve is phased or aggregate.
• Lease-up capital reserve fully drawn. Unfunded reserve drawn to zero while the property is still ramping; equity-call posture becomes operational rather than schedule-only. Escalate via equity_call_timing_drift path.
• Lender reporting waiver in place. Any waived status requires documented waiver pointer; missing waiver documentation flips status to missed for the operator view regardless of the lender-calendar marking.
• Ground-up property with no prior operating history. All T30/T90 baselines fall back to segment benchmark (funnel_conversion_benchmarks__middle_market.csv) with confidence: low annotation.
• Post-delivery unit count change. Final certified unit count differs from underwriting (e.g., combined unit, converted amenity space). Pace metrics rebase to certified unit count; underwriting curve is marked for fund-overlay reconciliation separately.

Example invocations

1. "Run the monthly lease-up review for South Fork, month 4 post-delivery. Flag ramp pace vs underwriting."
2. "Concession depth vs market check for Willow Creek lease-up this month."
3. "Build the lease-up scorecard for South Fork; include NOI ramp, lender reporting status, and first-renewal readiness."
4. "What's the traffic source mix at Atlantic Grove this month? Include broker-assist rate."
5. "Is South Fork ready to hand off to steady-state monthly ops review?"

Example outputs

Output — Monthly lease-up review (abridged, South Fork, month 5 post-delivery, April 2026)

Delivery anchor. CCO 2025-11-18; month 5 post-delivery; cco_to_first_lease_days (proposed) actual 14 days. Underwriting curve frozen at delivery.

Lease-up pace. leased_occupancy 48.3%; underwriting target at month 5 is 55.0%. lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) = 0.88. Below overlay tolerance band (0.90 floor per reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml::lease_up_pace_band). Second consecutive month below band; cadence escalates to weekly per trigger policy; hand off to leasing_director + asset_mgmt_director.

Concession posture. concession_rate 62% of new leases carry a concession. concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) +0.4 months offered vs market benchmark of 1.2 months (comp: concession_benchmarks__charlotte_mf.csv@2026-03-31 (starter)). Within overlay tolerance this month but trending toward the concession-vs-rent tradeoff ceiling.

Funnel. lead_response_time p50 within band. tour_conversion within band. application_conversion within band. approval_rate within band; no fair-housing disparity flag. move_in_conversion within band.

Traffic source mix. Paid search + broker-assist together carry 68% of executed leases. broker_assist_rate (proposed) = 31%, above segment benchmark of ~18%. Narrative: broker-assist overperforming; paid-search CPL rising. Marketing rentup gap not yet flagged but watched.

Model unit performance. Ready since month 2. model_unit_tour_conversion (proposed) = 46%, above overall tour_conversion of 38%. Model unit is an above-average converter; no readiness gap.

First-renewal readiness. No leases yet in T60 first-renewal window (earliest cohort first-renewal in month 12).

NOI ramp. Month 5 NOI at 61% of underwriting NOI ramp at month 5. noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed) = 0.61. Behind underwriting; concession depth and operating expense ramp both contributing. Not yet escalated (requires two consecutive months below); watched.

Rent comp & market gap. market_to_lease_gap within comp-set expected range; headline rents in-line with comp set of stabilized product. Comp: market_rents__charlotte_mf.csv@2026-03-31 (starter).

Lender-reporting compliance. Quarterly lease-up report due 2026-04-15. lender_reporting_compliance_status (proposed) = on_time for the March report submitted 2026-04-02. No misses.

Equity-call schedule. Forward 90-day: one call scheduled 2026-06-10 at planned_amount $4.2M; committed_amount $4.2M. Coverage within band; no drift.

Stabilization crossover. Not reached. Overlay threshold is leased_occupancy >= 92% for 3 consecutive months. Handoff to workflows/monthly_property_operating_review deferred.

Top-3 watch items.

1. lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting (proposed) = 0.88 second month running — weekly cadence begins; route pricing question to workflows/market_rent_refresh.
2. concession_depth_vs_market (proposed) +0.4 months above market — within tolerance but trending; narrative flags tradeoff risk.
3. noi_ramp_vs_underwriting (proposed) = 0.61 — watched; second-month flag triggers escalation to investments_lead.

Confidence banner.

References: source_of_truth_matrix@wave_4_authoritative,
appfolio_pms/normalized_contract@2026-04-08 (starter),
market_rents__charlotte_mf@2026-03-31 (starter),
concession_benchmarks__charlotte_mf@2026-03-31 (starter),
funnel_conversion_benchmarks__middle_market@2026-03-31 (sample),
marketing_channel_mix__middle_market@2026-03-31 (starter),
reconciliation_tolerance_band@2026-03-31 (sample),
role_kpi_targets@2026-03-31 (starter).
Proposed metrics (flagged): lease_up_pace_vs_underwriting,
concession_depth_vs_market, broker_assist_rate,
model_unit_tour_conversion, first_renewal_window_retention_readiness,
noi_ramp_vs_underwriting, lender_reporting_compliance_status,
equity_call_schedule_coverage, cco_to_first_lease_days.
Cross-system posture: AppFolio primary for funnel+lease execution;
Excel primary for rent comp+concession benchmark; Intacct primary
for NOI actuals post-close; Procore primary for CCO timestamp.