Prophet

Meta Prophet — forecasting at scale. Additive model with yearly/weekly/daily seasonality, holiday effects, changepoints, and trend decomposition. Handles missing data and outliers automatically.

mkurman 7a7de07 1.2 KB Updated

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Overview

Meta Prophet forecasts time series data with additive seasonality (yearly, weekly, daily), holiday effects, changepoint detection, and trend decomposition. Handles missing data and outliers automatically. Designed for business forecasting with human-interpretable components.

Installation

uv pip install prophet

Forecast

import pandas as pd
from prophet import Prophet
import numpy as np

df = pd.DataFrame({
    "ds": pd.date_range("2023-01-01", periods=365, freq="D"),
    "y": [100 + i*0.5 + 10*(i%7==0) + np.random.normal(0, 5) for i in range(365)],
})

model = Prophet(yearly_seasonality=True, weekly_seasonality=True)
model.fit(df)

future = model.make_future_dataframe(periods=90)
forecast = model.predict(future)

model.plot(forecast)
model.plot_components(forecast)

Holidays

model = Prophet()
model.add_country_holidays("US")
model.fit(df)

References

mkurman/zorai/tree/main/skills/scientific-skills/prophet commit 7a7de07da4

Frequently asked questions

npx skillmds@latest add mkurman/prophet