moonklabs Startup Financial Modeling
Investors speak in numbers. This skill provides a framework for building compelling financial models for fundraising — 3-scenario forecasts, business-model-specific templates, unit economics analysis, and transparent assumption documentation.
Connectors (Optional)
| Connector | Additional Functionality |
|---|---|
| ~~spreadsheet | Auto-generate models in Google Sheets or Excel with real-time collaboration |
| ~~knowledge base | Auto-reference historical financial data and metrics history |
| ~~analytics | Auto-collect actual data, forecast vs actuals reconciliation |
| ~~CRM | Revenue forecasts based on sales pipeline |
No connectors? You can build solid financial models with web research and user input alone. Output results as markdown tables or CSV and copy to your spreadsheet.
How It Works
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FINANCIAL MODELING │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Core Features (Standalone) │
│ ✓ 3-scenario forecasts (Base/Bull/Bear) 3-5 years │
│ ✓ Business-model templates (SaaS/Marketplace/Commerce/Services) │
│ ✓ Unit economics (CAC/LTV/Payback/LTV:CAC) │
│ ✓ Cohort-based revenue modeling │
│ ✓ Runway & burn rate calculations │
│ ✓ Assumption documentation & sensitivity analysis │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Enhanced Mode (With Connectors) │
│ + ~~spreadsheet: Auto-generate in Google Sheets/Excel │
│ + ~~knowledge base: Auto-reference historical data │
│ + ~~analytics: Auto-collect actual data │
│ + ~~CRM: Revenue forecasts from sales pipeline │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Getting Started
"3-year financial model - SaaS, MRR ₩10M, CAC ₩300K"
"Calculate unit economics - CAC, LTV, Payback"
"Calculate runway - current cash ₩500M, monthly burn ₩50M"
"Marketplace financial model - GMV-based"
Output Format
3-Scenario Financial Model Summary
# Financial Model: [Company Name] - [Business Model]
**Date:** [Date] | **Forecast Period:** [Start Month] ~ [End Month] (3-year/5-year) | **Scenarios:** Base/Bull/Bear
---
## Executive Summary
| Scenario | Year 3 Revenue | Year 3 EBITDA | Burn | Additional Funding Needed |
|----------|----------------|---------------|------|---------------------------|
| Bull | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] | [None/₩X] |
| Base | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] | [₩X] |
| Bear | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] | [₩X] |
**Key Assumptions:**
- Base: [Realistic growth rate — market average level]
- Bull: [Aggressive growth rate — top 25% benchmark]
- Bear: [Conservative growth rate — risk-adjusted]
---
## Scenario Details
### 📊 Base Scenario (Most Likely)
**Revenue (Unit: ₩)**
| Year | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | YoY Growth |
|------|----|----|----|-----------||
| Revenue | X | Y | Z | Y2→Y3: +W% |
**Key Drivers:**
- [Driver 1]: [Assumption and rationale]
- [Driver 2]: [Assumption and rationale]
**P&L Structure:**
| Line Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y3 % of Revenue |
|-----------|----|----|----|-----------------||
| Revenue | X | Y | Z | 100% |
| COGS | -A | -B | -C | -D% |
| Gross Profit | E | F | G | +H% |
| OpEx | -I | -J | -K | -L% |
| EBITDA | M | N | O | +/-P% |
---
### 🚀 Bull Scenario (Upside Case)
**Key Differences:**
- [Major difference vs Base 1]
- [Major difference vs Base 2]
**Revenue (Unit: ₩)**
[Simplified table — key metrics only]
---
### ⚠️ Bear Scenario (Downside Case)
**Risk Factors:**
- [Major risk 1 + impact]
- [Major risk 2 + impact]
**Revenue (Unit: ₩)**
[Simplified table — key metrics only]
---
## Unit Economics
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target/Benchmark |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|-------------------|
| CAC | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Benchmark] |
| LTV | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Benchmark] |
| LTV:CAC | [Ratio] | [Ratio] | [Ratio] | 3:1+ |
| Payback | [Months] | [Months] | [Months] | <12 months |
| Gross Margin | [%] | [%] | [%] | >70% (SaaS) |
**Interpretation:**
- [Health assessment]
- [Areas for improvement]
---
## Funding Plan
**Current State (Base Scenario):**
- Current cash: [Amount]
- Monthly burn rate: [Amount]
- Runway: [X months] ([End date])
**Additional Funding Required:**
- [Round]: [Amount] by [Timing]
- Use of funds: [1. Item — Amount], [2. Item — Amount]
**Funding Needs by Scenario:**
- Bull: [None or modest amount]
- Base: [Planned amount]
- Bear: [Larger amount or earlier timing]
---
## Key Assumptions
### Revenue Assumptions
- [Assumption 1]: [Value] — [Rationale]
- [Assumption 2]: [Value] — [Rationale]
### Cost Assumptions
- [Assumption 1]: [Value] — [Rationale]
- [Assumption 2]: [Value] — [Rationale]
### Sensitivity Analysis
Most sensitive variables:
1. [Variable 1]: 10% change → Year 3 revenue [X]% impact
2. [Variable 2]: 10% change → Year 3 EBITDA [Y]% impact
---
## Next Steps
- [ ] Build detailed monthly model in spreadsheet
- [ ] Perform sensitivity analysis by scenario
- [ ] Generate summary charts for board/investors
- [ ] Set up performance tracking dashboard
Execution Flow
Step 1: Identify Business Model
Checklist:
- Business model: SaaS / Marketplace / E-commerce / Services?
- Current stage: Pre-revenue / Early traction / Growth?
- Revenue model: Subscription / Transaction fees / Product sales / Hourly?
- Key metrics: MRR / GMV / Transaction volume / Number of projects?
Select appropriate template by business model → see references/model-templates.md
Step 2: Collect Current State Data
Core Data:
- Current revenue (MRR, GMV, monthly revenue, etc.)
- Customer count & growth rate
- Unit economics (CAC, LTV — if available)
- Team size & payroll
- Current cash & burn rate
Enhanced (With Connectors):
- ~~analytics: Auto-collect actual metrics
- ~~CRM: Sales pipeline data
- ~~knowledge base: Historical financial data
Step 3: Design Scenarios
Base Scenario (50-60% probability):
Principles:
- Realistic and achievable growth rate
- Based on market average or comparable company benchmarks
- Reflect known risks, but exclude severe shocks
- "Most likely" outcome
Example Assumptions:
- Customer growth: +10-15%/month (market average)
- Churn: 3-5% (benchmark)
- CAC: Maintain current level or modest improvement
Bull Scenario (20-30% probability):
Principles:
- Growth when everything goes well
- Top 25% benchmark
- Strong product-market fit, successful channel optimization
- "Optimistic but realistic" outcome
Example Assumptions:
- Customer growth: +20-30%/month (aggressive marketing)
- Churn: ≤2% (product improvements)
- CAC: 20-30% reduction (channel optimization)
Bear Scenario (10-20% probability):
Principles:
- Key risks materialize
- Conservative assumptions
- Market slowdown, increased competition, execution challenges
- "Difficult but not worst-case" outcome
Example Assumptions:
- Customer growth: +5%/month (market slowdown)
- Churn: 8-10% (intensified competition)
- CAC: 20% increase (channel efficiency decline)
Step 4: Model by Business Model
Each business model has unique drivers and metrics. See references/model-templates.md for detailed templates.
SaaS:
Core Drivers:
- New MRR (New Customers)
- Expansion MRR (Upsell/Cross-sell)
- Churn MRR (Cancellations)
- Net MRR = Prior + New + Expansion - Churn
Cohort-based Revenue:
- Monthly new customer cohorts
- Retention curve per cohort
- Monthly ARPU changes
Marketplace:
Core Drivers:
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
- Take Rate (commission rate)
- Revenue = GMV × Take Rate
- Two-sided supply/demand growth
Liquidity Metrics:
- Transaction completion rate
- Repeat purchase rate
- Demand per supplier
E-commerce:
Core Drivers:
- Monthly order volume
- AOV (Average Order Value)
- Repeat purchase rate
- Revenue = Order Count × AOV
Cohort Analysis:
- First purchase cohorts
- Repeat purchase patterns
- LTV calculation
Services/Agency:
Core Drivers:
- Billable headcount
- Hourly billing rate
- Utilization rate
- Revenue = Headcount × Hours × Billing Rate × Utilization
Project-based:
- Average project size
- Monthly project count
Step 5: Model Cost Structure
COGS (Cost of Goods Sold):
SaaS:
- Hosting costs (AWS, GCP)
- Third-party API costs
- Customer support costs (partial)
Target: Gross Margin 70-80%
Marketplace:
- Payment processing fees
- Fraud prevention costs
- Customer support
Target: Gross Margin 60-70%
E-commerce:
- Product COGS
- Shipping costs
- Inventory management
Target: Gross Margin 40-60%
Operating Expenses:
R&D / Product:
- Engineer salaries (25-35% of revenue)
- Tools & infrastructure
Sales & Marketing:
- CAC budget (New customers × CAC)
- Marketing team salaries
Target: 30-50% of revenue (growth stage)
G&A (General & Administrative):
- Executive salaries
- Legal, accounting, office
Target: 10-15% of revenue
Step 6: Document & Validate Assumptions
Assumption Documentation Structure:
## Key Assumptions Document
### 1. Customer Acquisition
- **Assumption:** [X] new customers/month
- **Rationale:** [Past 3-month avg Y customers × growth rate Z%]
- **Risk:** [CAC increase, channel saturation]
- **Validation:** [Monthly performance tracking]
### 2. Churn Rate
- **Assumption:** [X]%/month
- **Rationale:** [Past 6-month avg + benchmark]
- **Risk:** [Product gaps, intensified competition]
- **Validation:** [Cohort analysis]
[Repeat for all major assumptions]
Sensitivity Analysis:
Top 3 most impactful variables:
1. Customer growth rate: ±10% → Year 3 revenue ±X%
2. Churn rate: ±2%p → Year 3 revenue ±Y%
3. CAC: ±20% → Profitability achievement ±Z months
Business Model Considerations
SaaS (Software as a Service)
Core Metrics:
- MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)
- ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
- CAC Payback Period
- Rule of 40 (Growth rate + EBITDA margin)
Modeling Approach:
- Cohort-based MRR buildup
- Separate expansion & contraction
- Annual vs monthly contract mix
Detailed Template: references/model-templates.md → SaaS section
Marketplace
Core Metrics:
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
- Take Rate (commission rate)
- Liquidity (transaction completion rate)
- Repeat transaction rate
Modeling Approach:
- Two-sided supply/demand growth model
- Liquidity curve (low initially → high at maturity)
- Take rate progression (low initially → increases with brand strength)
Detailed Template: references/model-templates.md → Marketplace section
E-commerce
Core Metrics:
- GMV
- AOV (Average Order Value)
- Repeat Purchase Rate
- Inventory Turnover
Modeling Approach:
- Separate new vs repeat customers
- Incorporate seasonality
- Inventory turnover & cash conversion cycle
Detailed Template: references/model-templates.md → E-commerce section
Services/Agency
Core Metrics:
- Billable headcount
- Utilization Rate
- Hourly billing rate
- Project size & duration
Modeling Approach:
- Headcount-based capacity model
- Project pipeline → revenue conversion
- Productization roadmap (services → SaaS transition)
Detailed Template: references/model-templates.md → Services section
Unit Economics Framework
Core Metric Definitions
1. CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)
CAC = (Sales & Marketing Spend) / (New Customers)
Includes:
- Marketing campaign costs
- Sales team salaries (all or portion)
- Marketing tools & infrastructure
- Ad spend, events, content creation
Excludes:
- Customer Success (retention costs)
- Product development costs
2. LTV (Lifetime Value)
LTV = (ARPU × Gross Margin) / Churn Rate
SaaS Example:
- ARPU: ₩100K/month
- Gross Margin: 80%
- Churn: 3%/month
- LTV = (100K × 0.8) / 0.03 = ₩2.67M
Or:
LTV = ARPU × Avg. Customer Lifetime × Gross Margin
3. LTV:CAC Ratio
Healthy Ratios:
- 3:1+ → Healthy
- 2:1~3:1 → Needs improvement
- <2:1 → Risk (broken unit economics)
Investor Expectations:
- Seed: 2:1+ (prove initial efficiency)
- Series A: 3:1+ (scalability)
- Series B+: 4:1+ (maturity)
4. CAC Payback Period
Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin)
Targets:
- SaaS: <12 months
- Marketplace: <6 months
- E-commerce: <3 months
Example:
- CAC: ₩300K
- ARPU: ₩100K
- Gross Margin: 80%
- Payback = 300K / (100K × 0.8) = 3.75 months
Unit Economics Improvement Strategies
Reduce CAC:
- Strengthen organic channels (SEO, content, word-of-mouth)
- Optimize channels (eliminate low-efficiency ones)
- Improve funnel conversion rates
Increase LTV:
- Reduce churn (product improvements, stronger CS)
- Upsell/Cross-sell (increase ARPU)
- Expand usage (usage-based pricing)
Runway & Burn Rate
Basic Calculation
Runway (months) = Current Cash / Monthly Burn Rate
Burn Rate = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Costs
Example:
- Current cash: ₩500M
- Monthly revenue: ₩50M
- Monthly costs: ₩100M
- Burn: -₩50M
- Runway: 500M / 50M = 10 months
Fundraising Timing
Rule of Thumb:
- Start next round when 6 months of runway remain
- Time to close: 3-6 months (Seed/Series A)
Example:
- Current runway: 12 months
- Start fundraising at month 6
- Close target: months 9-12
- Safety margin: Additional 3-6 months (for Bear case)
Runway by Scenario
| Scenario | Burn Rate | Runway | Funding Needed | Timing |
|----------|-----------|--------|-----------------|--------|
| Bull | -₩30M | 16 months | None | - |
| Base | -₩50M | 10 months | ₩500M | Month 6 |
| Bear | -₩80M | 6 months | ₩1B | Immediately |
Decision Rules:
- If Bull probability is high → defer additional funding
- If Bear risk is high → secure funding now or reduce burn
Assumption Documentation & Transparency
Why Document Assumptions?
- Investor Confidence — Investors evaluate your thinking process, not just numbers.
- Team Alignment — Ensure everyone starts from the same premises.
- Traceability — Validate assumptions against actual results.
- Agility — Quickly adjust when assumptions prove wrong.
Assumption Documentation Template
# Financial Model Assumptions Document
**Model Version:** v1.3 | **Date:** 2024-11-15
---
## 1. Customer Acquisition
### 1.1 New Customers (Monthly)
- **Base:** 100 customers (+15% MoM)
- **Bull:** 150 customers (+25% MoM)
- **Bear:** 60 customers (+8% MoM)
**Rationale:**
- Past 3-month average: 85 customers/month
- Base: Double marketing budget → +15% growth (benchmark)
- Bull: Viral effect + channel optimization
- Bear: Market slowdown + higher CAC
**Risks:**
- CAC higher than expected → fewer customers
- Competitor aggressive marketing → market saturation
**Validation:**
- Monthly performance tracking
- CAC & conversion rate by channel
---
## 2. Churn Rate
### 2.1 Monthly Churn
- **Base:** 3.5%
- **Bull:** 2.0%
- **Bear:** 6.0%
**Rationale:**
- Past 6-month average: 4.2%
- Base: Product improvements + stronger CS → benchmark level
- Bull: Enterprise customers → half the churn
- Bear: Product gaps + intense competition
**Risks:**
- Product defects discovered
- Competitor launches strong alternative
**Validation:**
- Cohort retention tracking
- Churn reason interviews
[Repeat for all major assumptions]
Investor Presentation Summary
Financial Slides for Pitch Deck (3-4 slides)
Slide 1: 3-Scenario Revenue Forecast
Chart:
- X-axis: Year 0 → Year 3
- Y-axis: Revenue (₩)
- 3 lines: Bull (top), Base (middle), Bear (bottom)
- Highlight Year 3 numbers
Key Message:
"Base scenario: Year 3 revenue ₩[X], [Y]% CAGR"
Slide 2: Unit Economics
4 boxes:
┌─────────────┬─────────────┐
│ CAC │ LTV │
│ [Amount] │ [Amount] │
└─────────────┴─────────────┘
┌─────────────┬─────────────┐
│ LTV:CAC │ Payback │
│ [Ratio] │ [Months] │
└─────────────┴─────────────┘
Benchmark Comparison:
"Ours: 3.2:1 / Industry avg: 3:1"
Slide 3: Use of Funds
Waterfall or pie chart:
- Product Development: 40% (₩X)
- Sales & Marketing: 35% (₩Y)
- Team Expansion: 15% (₩Z)
- Operations & Contingency: 10% (₩W)
Milestones:
"Within 12 months: [3 key goals]"
"Within 24 months: [Next round readiness]"
Slide 4: Cohort Economics (Optional)
Cohort Retention Curve:
- Monthly cohorts (M0 → M12)
- Retention % or Revenue $
Key Message:
"12-month cohort: [X]% retention, [Y]x revenue expansion"
Related Skills
Effective when used alongside this skill:
- startup-metrics — Define core metrics by business model
- market-sizing — Validate revenue ceiling with TAM/SAM/SOM
- fundraising-process — Financial requirements by funding round
- pitch-craft — Integrate financial slides into pitch deck
- investor-update — Include financial performance in monthly updates
Tips
Start simple — Don't aim for a perfect model from day one. Focus on core drivers and refine progressively.
Document assumptions — Investors evaluate your thinking, not just numbers. Back up all major assumptions with reasoning.
Base scenario must be realistic — Bull/Bear are extremes, but Base should be the "most likely" outcome.
Unit economics come first — If one customer doesn't make economic sense, scaling only amplifies the problem.
Build monthly models — Annual summaries are for pitches; operations require monthly tracking.
Think in cohorts — Especially for SaaS/Marketplace, cohort-based revenue modeling is most accurate.
Compare against actuals — Your model is a living document. Update assumptions monthly based on results.
Connect to spreadsheet — Use ~~spreadsheet connector to auto-generate in Google Sheets for real-time team collaboration.
Reference benchmarks — Leverage industry averages, public comps, and VC benchmark reports.
Do sensitivity analysis — Identify which variables have the greatest impact and manage those intensively.
Detailed Templates
For business-model-specific financial model templates, see:
📄 references/model-templates.md
Includes:
- SaaS financial model (MRR buildup, NRR, Rule of 40)
- Marketplace financial model (GMV, Take Rate, two-sided growth)
- E-commerce financial model (GMV, AOV, repeat rate, inventory)
- Services/Agency financial model (headcount, utilization, projects)
- Monthly detailed structure for each model
- Spreadsheet formula examples