npbuilds
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- ▌ Portfolio Analyzer · npbuilds bundlePortfolio-level analysis for biotech venture funds including PoS-weighted expected portfolio value, portfolio probability of at least one success, therapeutic area concentration (Herfindahl index), phase distribution, correlation modeling, portfolio optimization, vintage year analysis, and reserve allocation. Activate when evaluating how an individual asset fits within a portfolio or assessing overall fund risk and return.
- ▌ Interactive Dashboards · npbuilds bundleBuild interactive, at-scale, and real-time data visualizations. Reference when choosing a rendering technology by data volume (SVG vs Canvas vs WebGL/WebGPU), selecting a 2026 charting framework (ECharts, Recharts, Visx, Nivo, deck.gl, Vega-Lite, Plotly), designing dashboards with linked views and progressive disclosure, or handling streaming and embedded analytics.
- ▌ Classical Games · npbuilds bundleClassical game theory foundations for strategic analysis. Reference when modeling strategic interactions, finding Nash equilibria, analyzing sequential games, evaluating mixed strategies, or understanding equilibrium refinements. Use when any analysis needs the core language and results of non-cooperative game theory.
- ▌ Alt Data Monitoring · npbuilds bundleAlternative data sources and integration frameworks for investment monitoring. Reference when evaluating non-traditional data signals, building monitoring dashboards with satellite imagery, transaction data, web scraping, NLP sentiment, or geolocation data for investment decisions.
- ▌ Options Mechanics · npbuildsKnowledge skill covering options market microstructure — 0DTE dynamics, gamma exposure (GEX), dealer hedging mechanics, volatility surface analysis, vanna and charm flows, options expiration effects, and retail options impact. Use when analyzing how options market mechanics create non-fundamental price movements in the underlying.
- ▌ Asset Allocation · npbuilds bundleStrategic and tactical asset allocation frameworks — from classic models (60/40, risk parity, endowment) to regime-based positioning, glide path design, liability-driven investing, and rebalancing methodology.
- ▌ Tax Optimization · npbuilds bundleTax-efficient portfolio management frameworks — tax-loss harvesting, direct indexing, asset location, tax-aware rebalancing, capital gains management, and estate planning considerations for investors.
- ▌ Market Psychology · npbuilds bundleBehavioral biases, crowd dynamics, and traditional sentiment indicators applied to investing. Covers the fear/greed cycle, herd behavior, contrarian frameworks from Druckenmiller and Buffett, and classical sentiment gauges like VIX, put/call ratios, AAII surveys, and margin debt.
- ▌ Sentiment Signals · npbuildsModern quantitative sentiment measurement using options-derived data, flow analysis, NLP-based text analysis, and alternative data sources. Covers GEX/DEX, 0DTE dynamics, CFTC positioning, social media sentiment, FinBERT, and frameworks for building composite sentiment indicators.
- ▌ Paradigm Analyst · npbuilds bundleIdentify the operating paradigm, research programme, and foundational assumptions of a field, theory, or research tradition using Kuhn, Lakatos, and Popper frameworks. Reference when the user needs to understand what a field takes for granted, whether a field is in normal science or crisis, or how competing research programmes compare.
- ▌ Indigenous Varieties · npbuilds bundleReference guide to 50 indigenous and regional grape varieties across Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Austria, Georgia, France, and the Americas. Use when the user encounters an unfamiliar grape, wants to explore beyond the standard varieties, or needs context on the natural wine movement's revival of forgotten regional grapes.
- ▌ Diligence Scorecard · npbuilds bundleGenerate a comprehensive 8-pillar investment diligence scorecard for a therapeutic asset or biotech company by synthesizing clinical, regulatory, competitive, manufacturing, IP, financial, team, and computational infrastructure assessments into a structured scoring framework with an investment recommendation. Activate when producing a complete diligence deliverable or synthesizing all prior analyses into a single decision framework.
- ▌ Cmc Risk Assessor · npbuilds bundleAssess chemistry, manufacturing, and controls risk using FMEA methodology with modality-specific failure modes, severity/occurrence/detection scoring, scalability assessment, COGS trajectory modeling, and supply chain single-point-of-failure analysis. Activate when evaluating whether a therapeutic program can be manufactured at commercial scale reliably and economically.
- ▌ Cellar Strategy · npbuilds bundleBuild and manage a collector wine cellar — bonded storage vs home storage, OWC vs loose bottles, drinking windows, deaccessioning timing, the trade-offs between consumption and investment. Use when designing a cellar, deciding where to store, or planning what to drink vs hold vs sell.
- ▌ Wine Provenance · npbuilds bundleAssess the physical and documentary provenance of wine — ullage, capsule integrity, label condition, cellar source designations (ex-château / ex-cellar / private collection / European collection), and the Kurniawan-era counterfeit risk. Use when buying any wine 20+ years old, when provenance claims are vague, or when bottles surface from unknown sources.
- ▌ Causal Inference · npbuilds bundleCausal inference methods for estimating treatment effects from observational data. Reference when designing quasi-experiments, selecting causal identification strategies, validating causal assumptions, or interpreting treatment effect estimates. Use when the question is "does X cause Y" rather than "does X predict Y."
- ▌ Liquidity Topology · npbuilds bundleKnowledge skill covering market liquidity assessment — bid-ask spreads, market depth, dark pool mechanics, order flow toxicity (VPIN), flash crash anatomy, ETF liquidity illusion, HFT market quality, and payment for order flow. Use when evaluating whether a market is genuinely liquid or structurally fragile beneath the surface.
- ▌ Reflexivity Theory · npbuilds bundleSoros's theory of reflexivity applied to financial markets. Covers the cognitive and manipulative functions, boom-bust dynamics, feedback loops in credit/equity/currency markets, and practical frameworks for identifying reflexive regimes and phase transitions.
- ▌ Counterfactual Reasoner · npbuilds bundleRun "what if" analysis: construct counterfactual scenarios, assess causal claims, and explore possibility space. Use when the user needs to evaluate what would have happened under different choices, assess whether X actually caused Y, stress-test a plan by exploring alternative scenarios, or reason about possibility and necessity.
- ▌ Demarcation Judge · npbuilds bundleDistinguish science from pseudoscience and evaluate whether a claim or field meets criteria for scientific legitimacy. Use when the user encounters a claim invoking scientific authority, needs to evaluate whether a field or practice has scientific standing, or wants to understand why a particular claim is or isn't considered scientific.
- ▌ Technology And Civilizational Change · npbuilds bundleAnalyze general-purpose technologies as civilizational inflection points: stirrups, printing, gunpowder, steam, electricity, nuclear energy, computing, and AI. Use when examining how technologies reshape societies through the recurring pattern of invention, institutional resistance, creative destruction, and transformation, drawing on Mokyr's knowledge economics.
- ▌ Sensory Worldbuilding · npbuilds bundleDesign what a world feels like to inhabit — soundscapes, smells, textures, temperatures, and embodied experience of place. Use when a world is structurally complete but feels abstract, when settings lack sensory identity, or when the user asks how to make a world feel real rather than described.
- ▌ Cooperative Games · npbuilds bundleCooperative game theory foundations for coalition analysis, fair allocation, bargaining, and matching. Reference when evaluating how groups should form, how to fairly divide value, how to structure negotiations, or how to design stable matching systems. Use when analysis requires binding agreements, coalition reasoning, or normative fairness concepts.
- ▌ Great Power Dynamics · npbuildsGreat-power competition and its investment implications. Reference when assessing US-China decoupling, supply chain restructuring, Taiwan risk, alliance blocs, sanctions regimes, and multipolar currency shifts. Use when geopolitical risk needs to be translated into portfolio decisions.
- ▌ Spinoffs Restructuring · npbuildsAnalyze corporate spinoffs, restructurings, and distressed situations for investment opportunities. Use when the user wants to evaluate a spinoff, carve-out, split-off, rights offering, bankruptcy emergence, or any corporate restructuring that creates forced selling and structural mispricing.
- ▌ Thought Experiment Lab · npbuilds bundleConstruct, analyze, and systematically vary thought experiments to test intuitions and principles. Use when the user needs to test whether a principle holds under extreme conditions, explore the implications of a claim by constructing hypothetical scenarios, generate counterexamples, or use imaginative reasoning to clarify conceptual boundaries.
- ▌ Methodology Critic · npbuilds bundleEvaluate study design, identify methodological weaknesses, and assess internal and external validity. Use when the user needs to judge whether a study's methods justify its conclusions, understand the limitations of a research approach, compare methodological strengths of different studies, or assess whether research findings are likely to replicate.
- ▌ Signal Scanner · npbuilds bundleMeasure scientific momentum for an emerging target or modality by computing the second derivative (acceleration) of PubMed and bioRxiv/medRxiv volume, citation-burst detection on landmark papers, and author-affiliation concentration to subtract single-lab artifacts, cross-checked against patent velocity, NIH grant flows, and the first-IND translation event. Activate when asking whether a target/modality is inflecting before consensus, how early you are, or when separating a genuine emerging field from review-driven or single-lab hype.
- ▌ Pathway Analyzer · npbuilds bundleAnalyze and recommend optimal FDA and EMA regulatory pathways for a given therapeutic program, quantifying timeline impact, eligibility criteria, and historical conversion rates. Produces actionable pathway recommendations with dual-filing strategy when applicable. Reference when assessing a biotech's regulatory strategy or advising on pathway selection during diligence.
- ▌ Learning In Games · npbuilds bundleLearning dynamics in strategic settings covering fictitious play, no-regret learning, regret matching, multi-agent reinforcement learning, self-play, and convergence results. Reference when analyzing how agents adapt strategies over time, whether learning converges to equilibrium, or how AI systems learn to play games. Use when the question involves dynamic adaptation, not static analysis.
- ▌ Evolutionary Games · npbuilds bundleEvolutionary game theory foundations for understanding strategy evolution in populations. Reference when analyzing evolutionarily stable strategies, interpreting classical games through an evolutionary lens, or understanding how cooperation, conflict, and conventions emerge without rational deliberation. Use when rationality is replaced by natural selection or imitation.
- ▌ Peak Sales Forecaster · npbuilds bundleForecast peak revenue for a therapeutic asset by modeling patient population, market penetration curves, pricing, and competitive dynamics over a 10-year commercial horizon to produce probability-weighted revenue projections for rNPV valuation and investment sizing.
- ▌ Investment Memo Writer · npbuilds bundleGenerate structured investment committee memos from diligence scorecard outputs. Template covers Executive Summary through Recommendation with assertion-led writing, quantified claims, and explicit assumptions. Translates quantitative pillar scores into persuasive narrative with clear thesis, risk/mitigant framework, and actionable recommendation. Activate when producing the written investment deliverable.
- ▌ Moa Analog Engine · npbuilds bundlePlace a discovery- or early-clinical-stage drug candidate on the historical arc of its mechanism class. Given a target, modality, or mechanism, finds the nearest validated analog among twelve matured classes, names the still-pending ignition trial to watch, dates its position on the five-phase life-cycle, and reads a marquee failure followed by modality re-engineering as a buy signal, not a kill. Activate when asking "what does this mechanism become, how long, and what proves it" — for a clinician learning the field or an investor screening early opportunities.
- ▌ Pos Base Rates · npbuilds bundleProvide historical clinical trial success rates by phase, therapeutic area, modality, and endpoint type, sourced from BIO/Informa/QLS databases with vintage-year adjustments. Reference when calculating probability of success, calibrating mechanism-based risk adjustments, or benchmarking a specific program against historical base rates.
- ▌ Pos Calculator · npbuilds bundleCalculate risk-adjusted probability of success for any therapeutic program using historical base rates, mechanism-based adjustments, and program-specific modifiers. Produce phase-by-phase transition probabilities with explicit adjustment rationale and cumulative likelihood of approval. Activate when estimating PoS for an asset, comparing programs, or feeding probability inputs into rNPV valuation.
- ▌ Statistical Testing · npbuilds bundleStatistical hypothesis testing frameworks for data analysis. Reference when choosing between parametric and non-parametric tests, designing hypothesis tests, computing power and effect sizes, correcting for multiple comparisons, or deciding between Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Use when any analysis needs rigorous statistical inference.
- ▌ Population Dynamics · npbuilds bundlePopulation dynamics foundations for evolutionary game theory. Reference when analyzing replicator equations, phase portraits, fixation probabilities, stochastic dynamics, or convergence properties of evolutionary processes. Use when the question is about how populations change over time, not just what the stable states are.