Results for “risk-prediction”

在启动高风险项目或重要决策前，需要预先识别潜在失败点以增强心理韧性和方案鲁棒性时

Calculate portfolio risk metrics including VaR, CVaR, Sharpe, Sortino, and drawdown analysis. Use when measuring portfolio risk, implementing risk limits, or building risk monitoring systems.

Use when evaluating potential risks before making decisions, starting initiatives, or implementing changes. This skill provides a structured risk assessment framework for identifying, analyzing, and responding to risks across all domains.

Compares prediction market probabilities from Polymarket with options-implied probabilities to identify mispricing signals and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Identify and prioritize risks by impact and controllability. Use for risk management, project planning, and strategic decision support.

Use when making a forward-looking claim with a checkable outcome (reply within 24h, error rate will drop, this skill will see more use) — record to state/predictions.jsonl with a review horizon so reflection can grade you later. Closes the in-the-moment double-loop.

Map product assumptions by risk, confidence, evidence, and next validation step.

在启动一个重要项目或关键行动之前，用于主动识别和防范风险

Mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization

风险管理核心skill套件 — CVaR实时风控、动态仓位管理（风控版）。对标Bridgewater全天候策略、PIMCO风控体系的工程化实现。

Enumerating failure modes via pre-mortem analysis. Systematically identifies failure scenarios for plans, designs, and features, scoring them with RPN/AP. Does not write code.

Debugging constant Markov regime features in RL observations - when HMM probabilities show uniform values instead of dynamic regime estimates

Broad risk assessment — key-person, technical, regulatory, competitive, financial, and execution risks beyond product/market

Run structured What-If scenario analysis with 4-6 branch possibility exploration (best, likely, worst, wild card, contrarian, second-order). Use for speculative questions about uncertain futures, strategic forks, contingency planning, or stress-testing decisions.

Creates safety alert decks with hazard stripes, tiered cards, and policy code blocks for incident reviews and risk communication.

Generates at most one token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run, each with a falsifiable thesis, entry, sizing, and kill criterion. Returns NO_PICK when no candidate meets the bar.

Run a pre-mortem — imagine the project has already failed one year from now and work backward to find the root causes before they happen. Load when the user asks for a pre-mortem, wants to imagine failure before committing, asks "what could go wrong before we start", "assume this fails — why", "risk analysis before launch", "what kills this project", "what could go wrong", or when deep-thinking diagnoses a pre-mortem frame. Based on Gary Klein's prospective hindsight method, which surfaces failure causes more effectively than forward risk analysis. Most useful right before a major commitment.

Design and implement Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, and probabilistic simulations across scientific and financial domains. Use when "monte carlo, random sampling, uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, stochastic simulation, MCMC, variance reduction, probabilistic, " mentioned.

Use when tuning RL reward function weights, fixing reward hacking, or addressing P&L gradient issues